bayesRatings

Ducks at Bruins

NHL · Thursday, Oct 23 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final ANA 7 – BOS 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1247
BOS1225
Team box
ANA·BOS
30
shots
42
1 of 3
power play
2 of 2
42.0
faceoff %
58.0
17
hits
18
22
blocked shots
15
9
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Petr MrazekANA4237.881
Joonas KorpisaloBOS2923.793

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 1 · ANA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 40%, BOS 60% · Updated Oct 23, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.2 – 2.8 ANA
Expected total
5.9
DucksThe matchupBruins
+152Our fair odds−152
2.8Expected goals3.2
−0.31Power rating−0.14
3.2Goals / game3.0
3.3Allowed / game3.2
32.8Shots / game26.8
49.4Faceoff %56.1
26.2Hits / game26.4
3−3Season record3−5
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+15240%————
BOSBoston Bruins−15260%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.4our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 16%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 27%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 13%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more33%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more22%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAPetr Mrazek G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.24 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·BOS
Oct 21, 2025 at NSH
last game
Oct 21, 2025 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
ANA·BOS
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.2
goals / game
3.0
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.2
3−3
season record
3−5
1−1
home record
2−2
2−2
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
4−6
32.8
shots / game
26.8
49.4
faceoff %
56.1
26.2
hits / game
26.4
11.5
blocked shots / game
17.9
3.7
takeaways / game
5.1
14.5
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

ANA · BOS · 10 days
Anaheim DucksBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 3−5
Mar 26, 2025at ANAANA 6 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at BOSANA 3 − 2 OT
Oct 26, 2023at BOSANA 4 − 3 OT
Oct 22, 2023at ANABOS 3 − 1
Jan 8, 2023at ANABOS 7 − 1
Oct 20, 2022at BOSBOS 2 − 1 SO
Mar 1, 2022at ANAANA 4 − 3
Jan 24, 2022at BOSANA 5 − 3

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025at SJ7 − 6W
Oct 9, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Apr 16, 2025at WPG1 − 2L
Apr 15, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 13, 2025vs COL2 − 4L
Apr 10, 2025at LA1 − 6L

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Oct 21, 2025vs FLA3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025at VGK5 − 6L
Oct 13, 2025vs TB3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025vs BUF3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025vs CHI4 − 3W
Oct 8, 2025at WSH3 − 1W
Apr 15, 2025vs NJ4 − 5L
Apr 13, 2025at PIT4 − 1W