bayesRatings

Ducks at Predators

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 21 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final ANA 5 – NSH 2
← NHL / Oct 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1315
NSH1102
Team box
ANA·NSH
32
shots
28
0 of 5
power play
0 of 1
54.1
faceoff %
45.9
23
hits
16
9
blocked shots
11
12
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ross JohnstonANA121
Cutter GauthierANA112
Jacob TroubaANA022
Troy TerryANA103
Leo CarlssonANA103
Filip ForsbergNSH103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2826.929
Juuse SarosNSH3227.844

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 0 · ANA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 41%, NSH 59% · Updated Oct 21, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 3.0 – 2.8 ANA
Expected total
5.8
DucksThe matchupPredators
+141Our fair odds−141
2.8Expected goals3.0
−0.31Power rating−0.22
2.8Goals / game2.5
3.6Allowed / game3.2
33.0Shots / game26.8
48.5Faceoff %50.2
26.8Hits / game19.2
2−3Season record2−4
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · NSH chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+14141%————
NSHNashville Predators−14159%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.2our margin————
NSHNashville Predators−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 16%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 28%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 11%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 6%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byNSH wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more29%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more19%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.97 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·NSH
Oct 19, 2025 at CHI
last game
Oct 18, 2025 at WPG
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ANA·NSH
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
2.8
goals / game
2.5
3.6
goals allowed / game
3.2
2−3
season record
2−4
1−1
home record
1−1
1−2
away record
1−3
L2
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
4−6
33.0
shots / game
26.8
48.5
faceoff %
50.2
26.8
hits / game
19.2
12.0
blocked shots / game
12.5
3.0
takeaways / game
5.2
14.8
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

ANA · NSH · 8 days
Anaheim DucksNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 5−5
Mar 20, 2025at NSHANA 4 − 1
Mar 14, 2025at ANAANA 2 − 1
Jan 25, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Feb 25, 2024at ANANSH 4 − 2
Jan 9, 2024at NSHANA 5 − 3
Nov 14, 2023at NSHANA 3 − 2
Mar 12, 2023at ANANSH 5 − 4 OT
Dec 30, 2022at ANANSH 6 − 1
Nov 29, 2022at NSHNSH 2 − 1 OT
Mar 21, 2022at ANANSH 6 − 3

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025at SJ7 − 6W
Oct 9, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Apr 16, 2025at WPG1 − 2L
Apr 15, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 13, 2025vs COL2 − 4L
Apr 10, 2025at LA1 − 6L
Apr 9, 2025vs CGY4 − 3W

NSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 18, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025at MTL2 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025at TOR4 − 7L
Oct 13, 2025at OTT4 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs CBJ2 − 1W
Apr 16, 2025vs DAL5 − 1W
Apr 14, 2025vs UTAH3 − 7L
Apr 12, 2025at VGK3 − 5L
Apr 10, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W