bayesRatings

Predators at Maple Leafs

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final NSH 4 – TOR 7
← NHL / Oct 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH0224
TOR2237
Team box
NSH·TOR
30
shots
28
0 of 2
power play
0 of 2
49.2
faceoff %
50.8
18
hits
21
11
blocked shots
20
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
William NylanderTOR124
John TavaresTOR122
Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR121
Matthew KniesTOR033
Auston MatthewsTOR205
Nick PerbixNSH112
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Justus AnnunenNSH2621.808
Cayden PrimeauTOR3026.867

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TOR 3 · NSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 36%, TOR 64% · Updated Oct 14, 2025

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 3.5 – 2.5 NSH
Expected total
6.1
PredatorsThe matchupMaple Leafs
+180Our fair odds−180
2.5Expected goals3.5
−0.16Power rating+0.20
2.7Goals / game3.3
1.7Allowed / game3.7
27.0Shots / game30.0
46.0Faceoff %56.0
20.7Hits / game26.3
2−1Season record1−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair35.7%64.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+18036%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−18064%————
SpreadTOR by 1.0
NSHNashville Predators+1our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Maple Leafs by 1.0 expected
Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 6%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 6%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 19%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 20%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 12%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 17%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 10%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%
← NSH wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more32%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .846 save %, 3.86 GAAstarted
TORCayden Primeau G · last 5 starts: .807 save %, 5.05 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·TOR
Oct 13, 2025 at OTT
last game
Oct 13, 2025 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NSH·TOR
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
2.7
goals / game
3.3
1.7
goals allowed / game
3.7
2−1
season record
1−2
1−1
home record
1−1
1−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
27.0
shots / game
30.0
46.0
faceoff %
56.0
20.7
hits / game
26.3
15.0
blocked shots / game
14.3
6.0
takeaways / game
3.7
18.3
giveaways / game
16.0

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 5−3
Mar 22, 2025at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Dec 4, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2
Dec 9, 2023at TORTOR 4 − 0
Oct 28, 2023at NSHNSH 3 − 2 OT
Mar 26, 2023at NSHTOR 3 − 2
Jan 11, 2023at TORTOR 2 − 1
Mar 19, 2022at NSHNSH 6 − 3
Nov 16, 2021at TORTOR 3 − 0

NSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 13, 2025at OTT4 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs CBJ2 − 1W
Apr 16, 2025vs DAL5 − 1W
Apr 14, 2025vs UTAH3 − 7L
Apr 12, 2025at VGK3 − 5L
Apr 10, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Apr 8, 2025vs NYI7 − 6W
Apr 6, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Apr 3, 2025at DAL1 − 5L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 13, 2025vs DET2 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025vs MTL5 − 2W
May 18, 2025vs FLA1 − 6L
May 16, 2025at FLA2 − 0W
May 14, 2025vs FLA1 − 6L
May 11, 2025at FLA0 − 2L
May 9, 2025at FLA4 − 5L
May 7, 2025vs FLA4 − 3W
May 5, 2025vs FLA5 − 4W