bayesRatings

Ducks at Stars

NHL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final ANA 7 – DAL 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0437
DAL2125
Team box
ANA·DAL
25
shots
26
2 of 5
power play
3 of 5
40.7
faceoff %
59.3
22
hits
15
10
blocked shots
19
10
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2621.808
Jake OettingerDAL2418.750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DAL 2 · ANA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 37%, DAL 63% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.8
Expected score
DAL 3.4 – 2.6 ANA
Expected total
6.1
DucksThe matchupStars
+171Our fair odds−171
2.6Expected goals3.4
−0.11Power rating+0.17
4.0Goals / game2.8
3.1Allowed / game3.0
31.4Shots / game26.1
47.0Faceoff %52.9
21.6Hits / game22.8
8−4Season record7−6
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair36.9%63.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+17137%————
DALDallas Stars−17163%————
SpreadDAL by 0.8
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.8our margin————
DALDallas Stars−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 0.8 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 18%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 23%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 12%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 15%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 9%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more41%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more29%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·DAL
Nov 4, 2025 vs FLA
last game
Nov 4, 2025 vs EDM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
ANA·DAL
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.0
goals / game
2.8
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
8−4
season record
7−6
4−1
home record
4−3
4−3
away record
3−3
W4
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
31.4
shots / game
26.1
47.0
faceoff %
52.9
21.6
hits / game
22.8
13.6
blocked shots / game
17.2
4.0
takeaways / game
4.0
15.7
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

ANA · DAL · 24 days
Anaheim DucksDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 7−3
Mar 18, 2025at DALDAL 4 − 3 OT
Feb 4, 2025at ANAANA 2 − 1
Nov 18, 2024at DALANA 4 − 2
Mar 8, 2024at ANADAL 6 − 2
Jan 25, 2024at DALDAL 4 − 3 OT
Oct 19, 2023at ANADAL 3 − 2
Feb 6, 2023at DALDAL 3 − 2 SO
Jan 4, 2023at ANAANA 2 − 0
Dec 1, 2022at DALDAL 5 − 0
Apr 29, 2022at DALDAL 4 − 2

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at TB3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025at FLA3 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025at TB1 − 2L
Oct 28, 2025vs WSH1 − 0W
Oct 26, 2025at NSH3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs CAR3 − 2W
Oct 23, 2025vs LA2 − 3L
Oct 21, 2025vs CBJ1 − 5L
Oct 18, 2025at STL1 − 3L
Oct 16, 2025vs VAN3 − 5L