bayesRatings

Red Wings at Ducks

NHL · Friday, Oct 31 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final DET 2 – ANA 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET1102
ANA2125
Team box
DET·ANA
30
shots
32
1 of 7
power play
1 of 5
64.2
faceoff %
35.8
16
hits
21
10
blocked shots
12
10
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET3127.871
Lukas DostalANA3028.933

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
DET +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 3 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, ANA 51% · Updated Oct 31, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.2 – 3.0 ANA
Expected total
6.2
Red WingsThe matchupDucks
+104Our fair odds−104
3.2Expected goals3.0
+0.01Power rating−0.20
3.5Goals / game3.6
3.1Allowed / game3.4
27.5Shots / game31.6
52.2Faceoff %47.3
20.0Hits / game23.0
8−3Season record5−4
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ANA chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+10449%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10451%————
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.2our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 13%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 26%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← DET wins byANA wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more33%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more23%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ANA
Oct 30, 2025 at LA
last game
Oct 28, 2025 at FLA
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DET·ANA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
3.5
goals / game
3.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.4
8−3
season record
5−4
5−1
home record
1−1
3−2
away record
4−3
W3
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
27.5
shots / game
31.6
52.2
faceoff %
47.3
20.0
hits / game
23.0
16.2
blocked shots / game
13.9
4.1
takeaways / game
3.9
16.2
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

DET · ANA · 18 days
Detroit Red WingsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ANA 4−4
Feb 23, 2025at DETDET 5 − 4 OT
Nov 15, 2024at ANAANA 6 − 4
Jan 7, 2024at ANADET 3 − 2
Dec 18, 2023at DETANA 4 − 3
Nov 15, 2022at ANAANA 3 − 2 OT
Oct 23, 2022at DETDET 5 − 1
Jan 31, 2022at DETDET 2 − 1 OT
Jan 9, 2022at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Oct 30, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Oct 15, 2025vs FLA4 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at TB3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025at SJ7 − 6W
Oct 9, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Apr 16, 2025at WPG1 − 2L