bayesRatings

Red Wings at Kings

NHL · Thursday, Oct 30 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final DET 4 – LA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
DET021014
LA012003
Team box
DET·LA
27
shots
39
2 of 3
power play
0 of 4
48.4
faceoff %
51.6
11
hits
17
18
blocked shots
15
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Cam TalbotDET3936.923
Darcy KuemperLA2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
DET +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: LA 1 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 41%, LA 59% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 0.7
Expected score
LA 3.3 – 2.6 DET
Expected total
5.9
Red WingsThe matchupKings
+145Our fair odds−145
2.6Expected goals3.3
+0.01Power rating+0.13
3.5Goals / game3.0
3.1Allowed / game3.3
27.5Shots / game27.8
52.6Faceoff %49.1
20.9Hits / game21.4
7−3Season record5−6
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LA chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+14541%————
LALos Angeles Kings−14559%————
SpreadLA by 0.7
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.7our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.7 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 20%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 15%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 3.40 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.51 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LA
Oct 28, 2025 at STL
last game
Oct 28, 2025 at SJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
DET·LA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.5
goals / game
3.0
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.3
7−3
season record
5−6
5−1
home record
0−3
2−2
away record
5−3
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
27.5
shots / game
27.8
52.6
faceoff %
49.1
20.9
hits / game
21.4
16.0
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.2
takeaways / game
5.0
16.0
giveaways / game
19.3

Rating Trend

DET · LA · 17 days
Detroit Red WingsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 5−3
Jan 27, 2025at DETDET 5 − 2
Nov 16, 2024at LALA 4 − 1
Jan 13, 2024at DETDET 5 − 3
Jan 4, 2024at LADET 4 − 3 SO
Nov 12, 2022at LALA 4 − 3
Oct 17, 2022at DETLA 5 − 4 OT
Feb 2, 2022at DETLA 5 − 3
Jan 8, 2022at LALA 4 − 0

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 28, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Oct 15, 2025vs FLA4 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025vs MTL1 − 5L

LA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28, 2025at SJ4 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025at CHI3 − 1W
Oct 25, 2025at NSH4 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at MIN3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025at VGK6 − 5W