bayesRatings

Panthers at Ducks

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final FLA 3 – ANA 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
FLA1203
ANA2237
Team box
FLA·ANA
21
shots
32
1 of 5
power play
2 of 7
44.8
faceoff %
55.2
27
hits
13
17
blocked shots
8
16
penalty minutes
25
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Sergei BobrovskyFLA3225.781
Lukas DostalANA2118.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +4
FLA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 4 · FLA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was FLA 53%, ANA 47% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
FLA by 0.6
Expected score
FLA 3.2 – 2.7 ANA
Expected total
5.9
PanthersThe matchupDucks
−112Our fair odds+112
3.2Expected goals2.7
+0.27Power rating−0.11
2.6Goals / game3.7
2.8Allowed / game3.1
28.8Shots / game31.4
46.8Faceoff %46.3
27.2Hits / game22.4
6−6Season record7−4
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · ANA chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers−11253%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+11247%————
SpreadFLA by 0.6
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.6our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 0.6 expected
Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 3%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 8%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 15%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 25%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← FLA wins byANA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more39%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more27%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 2.17 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·ANA
Nov 1, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs NJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
FLA·ANA
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
2.6
goals / game
3.7
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
6−6
season record
7−4
5−2
home record
3−1
1−4
away record
4−3
W1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
28.8
shots / game
31.4
46.8
faceoff %
46.3
27.2
hits / game
22.4
13.2
blocked shots / game
14.1
3.2
takeaways / game
3.8
15.2
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

FLA · ANA · 22 days
Florida PanthersAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ANA 2−7
Oct 28, 2025at FLAANA 3 − 2 SO
Jan 21, 2025at ANAFLA 5 − 2
Jan 18, 2025at FLAFLA 3 − 0
Jan 15, 2024at FLAANA 5 − 4 OT
Nov 17, 2023at ANAFLA 2 − 1
Feb 20, 2023at FLAFLA 4 − 3 OT
Nov 6, 2022at ANAFLA 5 − 3
Apr 12, 2022at FLAFLA 3 − 2 OT
Mar 18, 2022at ANAFLA 3 − 0

FLA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 1, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs ANA2 − 3L
Oct 25, 2025vs VGK3 − 0W
Oct 23, 2025vs PIT3 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at BOS4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at BUF0 − 3L
Oct 16, 2025at NJ1 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at DET1 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs OTT6 − 2W

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at TB3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025at SJ7 − 6W