bayesRatings

Ducks at Devils

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 11:30 AM CT · Prudential Center · Final ANA 1 – NJ 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1001
NJ1214
Team box
ANA·NJ
31
shots
22
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
28.8
faceoff %
71.2
17
hits
17
21
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ondrej PalatNJ023
Juho LammikkoNJ021
Colton WhiteNJ020
Troy TerryANA106
Cody GlassNJ104
Connor BrownNJ102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2118.857
Jake AllenNJ3130.968

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NJ 3 · ANA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 45%, NJ 55% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NJ 3.1 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.1
DucksThe matchupDevils
+123Our fair odds−123
2.9Expected goals3.1
−0.07Power rating−0.04
3.6Goals / game3.0
3.3Allowed / game3.2
31.1Shots / game29.7
46.8Faceoff %49.5
20.4Hits / game20.5
19−12Season record17−14
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · NJ chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+12345%————
NJNew Jersey Devils−12355%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.2our margin————
NJNew Jersey Devils−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 18%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 24%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 12%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 6%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byNJ wins by →
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more31%
New Jersey Devils wins by 3 or more21%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .869 save %, 3.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·NJ
Dec 11, 2025 at NYI
last game
Dec 11, 2025 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
ANA·NJ
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.6
goals / game
3.0
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.2
19−12
season record
17−14
11−4
home record
9−6
8−8
away record
8−8
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
31.1
shots / game
29.7
46.8
faceoff %
49.5
20.4
hits / game
20.5
14.7
blocked shots / game
15.5
4.9
takeaways / game
4.9
15.1
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

ANA · NJ · 60 days
Anaheim DucksNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NJ 4−5
Nov 2, 2025at ANAANA 4 − 1
Dec 31, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 2
Oct 27, 2024at NJNJ 6 − 2
Mar 1, 2024at ANAANA 4 − 3
Dec 17, 2023at NJANA 5 − 1
Jan 13, 2023at ANANJ 6 − 2
Oct 18, 2022at NJNJ 4 − 2
Mar 12, 2022at NJNJ 2 − 1 SO
Nov 2, 2021at ANAANA 4 − 0

ANA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 11, 2025at NYI2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI7 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 3, 2025vs UTAH0 − 7L
Dec 1, 2025at STL4 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at CHI3 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Nov 26, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 11, 2025vs TB4 − 8L
Dec 9, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at BOS1 − 4L
Dec 5, 2025vs VGK0 − 3L
Dec 3, 2025vs DAL0 − 3L
Dec 1, 2025vs CBJ3 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025vs PHI3 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025at BUF5 − 0W
Nov 26, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Nov 24, 2025vs DET4 − 3W