bayesRatings

Mammoth at Ducks

NHL · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final UTAH 7 – ANA 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH2237
ANA0000
Team box
UTAH·ANA
34
shots
27
1 of 2
power play
0 of 3
47.6
faceoff %
52.4
30
hits
22
25
blocked shots
13
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
JJ PeterkaUTAH226
Clayton KellerUTAH123
Dylan GuentherUTAH115
Ian ColeUTAH112
Jack McBainUTAH022
Nick SchmaltzUTAH021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH27271.000
Vyacheslav ButeyetsANA1310.769
Ville HussoANA2117.810

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +7
UTAH +7
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 0 · UTAH 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 45%, ANA 55% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.3 – 3.1 UTAH
Expected total
6.4
MammothThe matchupDucks
+120Our fair odds−120
3.1Expected goals3.3
−0.07Power rating−0.07
3.0Goals / game3.7
3.1Allowed / game3.2
28.9Shots / game30.2
47.5Faceoff %46.0
17.8Hits / game20.7
12−15Season record16−10
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · ANA chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+12045%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−12055%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.2our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 23%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 12%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more31%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more21%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.44 GAAstarted
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .924 save %, 2.56 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·ANA
Dec 1, 2025 at SJ
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
UTAH·ANA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.0
goals / game
3.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
12−15
season record
16−10
7−4
home record
9−3
5−11
away record
7−7
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
28.9
shots / game
30.2
47.5
faceoff %
46.0
17.8
hits / game
20.7
13.3
blocked shots / game
14.8
3.9
takeaways / game
4.9
17.3
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

UTAH · ANA · 50 days
Utah MammothAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · ANA 3−1
Nov 17, 2025at ANAANA 3 − 2 OT
Mar 12, 2025at UTAHUTAH 3 − 2
Dec 22, 2024at UTAHANA 5 − 4 SO
Oct 16, 2024at ANAANA 5 − 4 OT

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Dec 1, 2025at SJ3 − 6L
Nov 29, 2025at STL0 − 1L
Nov 28, 2025at DAL3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Nov 24, 2025vs VGK5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L
Nov 18, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Nov 17, 2025at ANA2 − 3L
Nov 14, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 1, 2025at STL4 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at CHI3 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Nov 26, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L