bayesRatings

Kings at Ducks

NHL · Friday, Nov 28 · 3:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final LA 4 – ANA 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
LA112004
ANA022015
Team box
LA·ANA
27
shots
31
0 of 1
power play
1 of 2
52.7
faceoff %
47.3
14
hits
18
24
blocked shots
21
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA3127.871
Ville HussoANA2723.852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 0 · LA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 49%, ANA 51% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 3.1 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.0
KingsThe matchupDucks
+104Our fair odds−104
3.1Expected goals2.9
+0.13Power rating−0.06
2.7Goals / game3.7
2.8Allowed / game3.2
29.0Shots / game30.5
49.1Faceoff %46.0
17.2Hits / game20.9
11−12Season record14−9
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · ANA chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+10449%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10451%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings−0.2our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 7%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 26%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byANA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more33%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more22%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 1.80 GAAstarted
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·ANA
Nov 24, 2025 vs OTT
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs VAN
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
LA·ANA
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
2.7
goals / game
3.7
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.2
11−12
season record
14−9
2−7
home record
8−3
9−5
away record
6−6
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
29.0
shots / game
30.5
49.1
faceoff %
46.0
17.2
hits / game
20.9
13.2
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
16.8
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

LA · ANA · 45 days
Los Angeles KingsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 2−8
Apr 10, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at LAANA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 29, 2024at ANALA 2 − 1
Oct 20, 2024at ANALA 4 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at LALA 3 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2 SO
Nov 24, 2023at ANALA 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2023at ANALA 5 − 3
Feb 17, 2023at ANALA 6 − 3

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 24, 2025vs OTT2 − 1W
Nov 21, 2025vs BOS1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at SJ3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W
Nov 13, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025at MTL5 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at PIT3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs WPG3 − 0W

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 26, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W