bayesRatings

Ducks at Red Wings

NHL · Thursday, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final ANA 3 – DET 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0213
DET0336
Team box
ANA·DET
28
shots
33
0 of 3
power play
2 of 4
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
21
hits
16
14
blocked shots
17
24
penalty minutes
22
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA3227.844
John GibsonDET1715.882
Cam TalbotDET1110.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 3 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 45%, DET 55% · Updated Nov 13, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.2 – 3.2 ANA
Expected total
6.4
DucksThe matchupRed Wings
+123Our fair odds−123
3.2Expected goals3.2
−0.02Power rating−0.05
4.0Goals / game2.9
3.1Allowed / game3.2
30.5Shots / game29.2
46.5Faceoff %52.0
21.6Hits / game19.1
11−5Season record9−7
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+12345%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−12355%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 16%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 26%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more29%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more20%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.61 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·DET
Nov 11, 2025 at COL
last game
Nov 9, 2025 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
ANA·DET
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
goals / game
2.9
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
11−5
season record
9−7
5−1
home record
5−3
6−4
away record
4−4
L1
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
4−6
30.5
shots / game
29.2
46.5
faceoff %
52.0
21.6
hits / game
19.1
14.2
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.3
takeaways / game
3.8
15.1
giveaways / game
17.2

Rating Trend

ANA · DET · 31 days
Anaheim DucksDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 4−5
Oct 31, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Feb 23, 2025at DETDET 5 − 4 OT
Nov 15, 2024at ANAANA 6 − 4
Jan 7, 2024at ANADET 3 − 2
Dec 18, 2023at DETANA 4 − 3
Nov 15, 2022at ANAANA 3 − 2 OT
Oct 23, 2022at DETDET 5 − 1
Jan 31, 2022at DETDET 2 − 1 OT
Jan 9, 2022at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO

ANA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at TB3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Nov 9, 2025vs CHI1 − 5L
Nov 7, 2025vs NYR1 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025at VGK0 − 1L
Nov 2, 2025at SJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at ANA2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L