bayesRatings

Rangers at Red Wings

NHL · Friday, Nov 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final NYR 4 – DET 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1124
DET1001
Team box
NYR·DET
26
shots
33
1 of 3
power play
0 of 4
55.6
faceoff %
44.4
27
hits
24
20
blocked shots
14
13
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR3332.970
Cam TalbotDET2622.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 0 · NYR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 44%, DET 56% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.1 – 3.1 NYR
Expected total
6.2
RangersThe matchupRed Wings
+128Our fair odds−128
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.04Power rating+0.02
2.2Goals / game3.1
2.4Allowed / game3.0
28.6Shots / game27.7
53.8Faceoff %52.6
24.4Hits / game18.7
6−8Season record9−5
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · DET chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+12844%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−12856%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 16%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 26%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more29%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more19%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.64 GAAstarted
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.91 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·DET
Nov 4, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Nov 4, 2025 at VGK
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NYR·DET
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
2.2
goals / game
3.1
2.4
goals allowed / game
3.0
6−8
season record
9−5
0−6
home record
5−1
6−2
away record
4−4
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
28.6
shots / game
27.7
53.8
faceoff %
52.6
24.4
hits / game
18.7
14.1
blocked shots / game
15.6
5.3
takeaways / game
3.9
13.0
giveaways / game
17.0

Rating Trend

NYR · DET · 25 days
New York RangersDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 2−8
Nov 9, 2024at DETNYR 4 − 0
Oct 17, 2024at DETNYR 5 − 2
Oct 14, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2024at DETNYR 4 − 3
Nov 29, 2023at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Nov 7, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 3
Feb 23, 2023at DETDET 4 − 1
Nov 10, 2022at DETNYR 8 − 2
Nov 6, 2022at NYRDET 3 − 2 OT
Apr 16, 2022at NYRNYR 4 − 0

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 4, 2025vs CAR0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at VAN2 − 0W
Oct 26, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025vs MIN1 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025at TOR1 − 2L
Oct 14, 2025vs EDM0 − 2L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 4, 2025at VGK0 − 1L
Nov 2, 2025at SJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at ANA2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025vs TB2 − 1W