bayesRatings

Rangers at Maple Leafs

NHL · Thursday, Oct 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final NYR 1 – TOR 2
← NHL / Oct 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
NYR00101
TOR10012
Team box
NYR·TOR
29
shots
24
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
52.7
faceoff %
47.3
22
hits
18
10
blocked shots
13
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
William NylanderTOR022
Matthew KniesTOR104
Juuso ParssinenNYR102
Auston MatthewsTOR102
Braden SchneiderNYR012
Morgan RiellyTOR012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR2422.917
Anthony StolarzTOR2928.966

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TOR 1 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 41%, TOR 59% · Updated Oct 16, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 3.4 – 2.9 NYR
Expected total
6.3
RangersThe matchupMaple Leafs
+142Our fair odds−142
2.9Expected goals3.4
+0.09Power rating+0.20
2.0Goals / game4.2
1.4Allowed / game3.8
30.6Shots / game29.5
54.5Faceoff %54.7
25.6Hits / game25.0
2−3Season record2−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · TOR chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+14241%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−14259%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 17%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 25%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 11%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 13%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 7%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 3%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more34%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more23%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .977 save %, 0.60 GAAstarted
TORAnthony Stolarz G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.69 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·TOR
Oct 14, 2025 vs EDM
last game
Oct 14, 2025 vs NSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NYR·TOR
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
2.0
goals / game
4.2
1.4
goals allowed / game
3.8
2−3
season record
2−2
0−3
home record
2−1
2−0
away record
0−1
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
30.6
shots / game
29.5
54.5
faceoff %
54.7
25.6
hits / game
25.0
14.4
blocked shots / game
15.8
5.0
takeaways / game
3.8
15.8
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

NYR · TOR · 3 days
New York RangersToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Mar 20, 2025at NYRTOR 4 − 3
Feb 28, 2025at NYRTOR 3 − 2
Oct 19, 2024at TORNYR 4 − 1
Mar 2, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 3 SO
Dec 19, 2023at TORNYR 5 − 2
Dec 12, 2023at NYRTOR 7 − 3
Apr 13, 2023at NYRTOR 3 − 2
Jan 25, 2023at TORTOR 3 − 2 OT
Dec 15, 2022at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Jan 19, 2022at NYRNYR 6 − 3

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 14, 2025vs EDM0 − 2L
Oct 12, 2025vs WSH0 − 1L
Oct 11, 2025at PIT6 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at BUF4 − 0W
Oct 7, 2025vs PIT0 − 3L
Apr 17, 2025vs TB4 − 0W
Apr 14, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025at CAR3 − 7L
Apr 10, 2025at NYI9 − 2W
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI5 − 8L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 14, 2025vs NSH7 − 4W
Oct 13, 2025vs DET2 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025vs MTL5 − 2W
May 18, 2025vs FLA1 − 6L
May 16, 2025at FLA2 − 0W
May 14, 2025vs FLA1 − 6L
May 11, 2025at FLA0 − 2L
May 9, 2025at FLA4 − 5L
May 7, 2025vs FLA4 − 3W