bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Red Wings

NHL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 12:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final CHI 5 – DET 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI1135
DET1001
Team box
CHI·DET
20
shots
46
3 of 3
power play
0 of 5
48.4
faceoff %
51.6
17
hits
20
16
blocked shots
8
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arvid SoderblomCHI4645.978
John GibsonDET1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
CHI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 0 · CHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 35%, DET 65% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 0.9
Expected score
DET 3.8 – 2.8 CHI
Expected total
6.6
BlackhawksThe matchupRed Wings
+189Our fair odds−189
2.8Expected goals3.8
−0.36Power rating+0.02
3.2Goals / game3.0
2.7Allowed / game3.1
25.5Shots / game28.1
47.1Faceoff %52.0
19.5Hits / game19.1
7−8Season record9−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · DET chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+18935%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−18965%————
SpreadDET by 0.9
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.9our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Red Wings by 0.9 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 16%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 24%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 12%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 16%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 2.98 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 3.06 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·DET
Nov 7, 2025 at CGY
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
CHI·DET
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.2
goals / game
3.0
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.1
7−8
season record
9−6
3−3
home record
5−2
4−5
away record
4−4
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.5
shots / game
28.1
47.1
faceoff %
52.0
19.5
hits / game
19.1
11.6
blocked shots / game
15.5
5.7
takeaways / game
3.8
16.7
giveaways / game
17.0

Rating Trend

CHI · DET · 27 days
Chicago BlackhawksDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 6−2
Jan 10, 2025at DETDET 5 − 3
Nov 6, 2024at CHIDET 4 − 1
Feb 25, 2024at CHIDET 3 − 2 OT
Nov 30, 2023at DETDET 5 − 1
Mar 8, 2023at DETDET 4 − 3
Oct 21, 2022at CHICHI 4 − 3 OT
Jan 26, 2022at DETCHI 8 − 5
Oct 24, 2021at CHIDET 6 − 3

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 7, 2025at CGY4 − 0W
Nov 5, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025at WPG3 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs OTT7 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs LA1 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at TB3 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025vs ANA2 − 1W
Oct 17, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 7, 2025vs NYR1 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025at VGK0 − 1L
Nov 2, 2025at SJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at ANA2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W