bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Flames

NHL · Friday, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Saddledome · Final CHI 4 – CGY 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI1034
CGY0000
Team box
CHI·CGY
27
shots
33
1 of 3
power play
0 of 3
41.7
faceoff %
58.3
18
hits
29
10
blocked shots
13
21
penalty minutes
21
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI33331.000
Dustin WolfCGY2723.852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CGY +4
CHI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CGY 0 · CHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 38%, CGY 62% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CGY 3.1 – 2.6 CHI
Expected total
5.7
BlackhawksThe matchupFlames
+160Our fair odds−160
2.6Expected goals3.1
−0.36Power rating−0.15
3.1Goals / game2.4
2.9Allowed / game3.3
25.4Shots / game27.9
47.5Faceoff %46.4
19.6Hits / game22.7
6−8Season record4−11
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · CGY chance
Our model fair38.5%61.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+16038%————
CGYCalgary Flames−16062%————
Spreadabout even
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.4our margin————
CGYCalgary Flames−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 16%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 28%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 11%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 12%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 6%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: 2%Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byCGY wins by →
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more32%
Calgary Flames wins by 3 or more21%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 3.17 GAAstarted
CGYDustin Wolf G · last 5 starts: .931 save %, 2.23 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·CGY
Nov 5, 2025 at VAN
last game
Nov 5, 2025 vs CBJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
CHI·CGY
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.1
goals / game
2.4
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.3
6−8
season record
4−11
3−3
home record
2−4
3−5
away record
2−7
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
3−7
25.4
shots / game
27.9
47.5
faceoff %
46.4
19.6
hits / game
22.7
11.7
blocked shots / game
14.2
5.4
takeaways / game
4.0
16.6
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

CHI · CGY · 25 days
Chicago BlackhawksCalgary Flames
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CGY 5−5
Jan 13, 2025at CHICGY 5 − 2
Dec 21, 2024at CGYCGY 6 − 4
Oct 15, 2024at CGYCGY 3 − 1
Mar 26, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 1
Jan 27, 2024at CGYCGY 1 − 0
Jan 7, 2024at CHICHI 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2023at CGYCHI 4 − 3
Jan 26, 2023at CGYCHI 5 − 1
Jan 8, 2023at CHICHI 4 − 3 OT
Apr 18, 2022at CHICGY 5 − 2

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 5, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025at WPG3 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs OTT7 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs LA1 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at TB3 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025vs ANA2 − 1W
Oct 17, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at STL8 − 3W

CGY · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Nov 5, 2025vs CBJ5 − 1W
Nov 2, 2025at PHI2 − 1W
Nov 1, 2025at NSH2 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025at OTT3 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at WPG3 − 5L
Oct 22, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs WPG1 − 2L
Oct 18, 2025at VGK1 − 6L