bayesRatings

Flames at Flyers

NHL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final CGY 2 – PHI 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CGY0112
PHI0011
Team box
CGY·PHI
21
shots
18
0 of 2
power play
0 of 1
52.6
faceoff %
47.4
25
hits
21
18
blocked shots
17
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dustin WolfCGY1817.944
Aleksei KolosovPHI2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
CGY +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PHI 0 · CGY 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CGY 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 3.0 – 2.9 CGY
Expected total
5.9
FlamesThe matchupFlyers
+124Our fair odds−124
2.9Expected goals3.0
−0.14Power rating−0.17
2.2Goals / game2.9
3.6Allowed / game2.6
28.5Shots / game24.0
46.4Faceoff %50.5
22.5Hits / game20.7
2−11Season record6−5
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CGY chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CGYCalgary Flames+12445%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−12455%————
Spreadabout even
CGYCalgary Flames+0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: 2%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 5%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 11%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 10%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 17%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 27%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 10%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 11%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 5%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%
← CGY wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more28%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 3 or more19%
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CGYDustin Wolf G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.63 GAAstarted
PHIAleksei Kolosov G · last 5 starts: .817 save %, 4.91 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CGY·PHI
Nov 1, 2025 at NSH
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CGY·PHI
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
2.2
goals / game
2.9
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.6
2−11
season record
6−5
1−4
home record
6−2
1−7
away record
0−3
L3
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
6−4
28.5
shots / game
24.0
46.4
faceoff %
50.5
22.5
hits / game
20.7
13.2
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.0
takeaways / game
3.5
15.8
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

CGY · PHI · 20 days
Calgary FlamesPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 3−5
Mar 4, 2025at PHICGY 6 − 3
Oct 12, 2024at CGYCGY 6 − 3
Jan 6, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Dec 31, 2023at CGYCGY 4 − 3
Feb 20, 2023at CGYPHI 4 − 3
Nov 21, 2022at PHICGY 5 − 2
Nov 16, 2021at PHIPHI 2 − 1 OT
Oct 30, 2021at CGYCGY 4 − 0

CGY · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Nov 1, 2025at NSH2 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025at OTT3 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at WPG3 − 5L
Oct 22, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs WPG1 − 2L
Oct 18, 2025at VGK1 − 6L
Oct 15, 2025at UTAH1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs VGK2 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at OTT1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA5 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs FLA5 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025at CAR3 − 4L