bayesRatings

Predators at Flyers

NHL · Thursday, Oct 30 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final NSH 1 – PHI 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH0101
PHI0224
Team box
NSH·PHI
33
shots
18
0 of 2
power play
1 of 1
54.9
faceoff %
45.1
21
hits
21
12
blocked shots
21
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Juuse SarosNSH1714.824
Dan VladarPHI3332.970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PHI 3 · NSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 43%, PHI 57% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 3.1 – 2.9 NSH
Expected total
6.0
PredatorsThe matchupFlyers
+133Our fair odds−133
2.9Expected goals3.1
−0.21Power rating−0.17
2.5Goals / game2.9
3.4Allowed / game2.6
26.7Shots / game23.7
52.5Faceoff %52.0
20.7Hits / game21.1
4−7Season record5−4
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+13343%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−13357%————
Spreadabout even
NSHNashville Predators+0.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 16%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 27%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 10%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 11%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 6%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%
← NSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more30%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 3 or more20%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.58 GAAstarted
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·PHI
Oct 28, 2025 vs TB
last game
Oct 28, 2025 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
NSH·PHI
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
2.5
goals / game
2.9
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.6
4−7
season record
5−4
3−4
home record
5−1
1−3
away record
0−3
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
26.7
shots / game
23.7
52.5
faceoff %
52.0
20.7
hits / game
21.1
12.3
blocked shots / game
14.9
5.7
takeaways / game
3.9
15.5
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

NSH · PHI · 17 days
Nashville PredatorsPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 4−4
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at NSHPHI 3 − 2 OT
Dec 21, 2023at PHINSH 4 − 2
Dec 12, 2023at NSHNSH 3 − 2 OT
Feb 11, 2023at PHINSH 2 − 1 OT
Oct 22, 2022at NSHPHI 3 − 1
Mar 27, 2022at NSHNSH 5 − 4
Mar 17, 2022at PHIPHI 5 − 4

NSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 28, 2025vs TB2 − 5L
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 25, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025vs ANA2 − 5L
Oct 18, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025at MTL2 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025at TOR4 − 7L
Oct 13, 2025at OTT4 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at OTT1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA5 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs FLA5 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Oct 9, 2025at FLA1 − 2L
Apr 17, 2025at BUF4 − 5L