bayesRatings

Ducks at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 11 · 8:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final ANA 1 – COL 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1001
COL1124
Team box
ANA·COL
36
shots
36
0 of 2
power play
1 of 4
48.3
faceoff %
51.7
26
hits
16
19
blocked shots
13
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA3532.914
Scott WedgewoodCOL3635.972

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 35%, COL 65% · Updated Nov 11, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.4
Expected score
COL 4.2 – 2.8 ANA
Expected total
7.0
DucksThe matchupAvalanche
+189Our fair odds−189
2.8Expected goals4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.39
4.2Goals / game4.0
3.1Allowed / game2.6
30.1Shots / game33.9
46.4Faceoff %49.7
21.3Hits / game17.6
11−4Season record10−6
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · COL chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+18935%————
COLColorado Avalanche−18965%————
SpreadCOL by 1.4
ANAAnaheim Ducks+1.4our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.4 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 8 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more53%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more40%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .900 save %, 2.42 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·COL
Nov 9, 2025 vs WPG
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at VAN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
ANA·COL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
4.2
goals / game
4.0
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.6
11−4
season record
10−6
5−1
home record
4−2
6−3
away record
6−4
W7
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
5−5
30.1
shots / game
33.9
46.4
faceoff %
49.7
21.3
hits / game
17.6
13.9
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.1
takeaways / game
4.9
15.1
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

ANA · COL · 29 days
Anaheim DucksColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Apr 13, 2025at ANACOL 4 − 2
Dec 20, 2024at ANACOL 4 − 2
Oct 18, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 3 OT
Dec 5, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Dec 2, 2023at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Nov 15, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 2
Apr 9, 2023at ANACOL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 27, 2023at ANACOL 5 − 1
Jan 26, 2023at COLANA 5 − 3
Jan 19, 2022at ANACOL 2 − 0

ANA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at TB3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W
Oct 26, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 25, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025vs CAR4 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L