bayesRatings

Jets at Kings

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final WPG 0 – LA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0000
LA1023
Team box
WPG·LA
23
shots
26
0 of 5
power play
1 of 6
37.3
faceoff %
62.7
16
hits
13
15
blocked shots
10
12
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG2523.920
Darcy KuemperLA23231.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 3 · WPG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 51%, LA 49% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 2.9 – 2.6 LA
Expected total
5.5
JetsThe matchupKings
−102Our fair odds+102
2.9Expected goals2.6
+0.38Power rating+0.09
3.8Goals / game2.8
2.5Allowed / game3.4
27.1Shots / game29.9
52.9Faceoff %49.6
22.3Hits / game20.2
9−3Season record5−8
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · LA chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets−10251%————
LALos Angeles Kings+10249%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.3our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.5
Over5.5our total————
Under5.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 7%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 13%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 27%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byLA wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more34%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more22%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.5 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.567%
Total over 5.544%
Total over 6.533%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.94 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·LA
Nov 1, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs NJ
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
WPG·LA
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
3.8
goals / game
2.8
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.4
9−3
season record
5−8
5−3
home record
0−5
4−0
away record
5−3
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
27.1
shots / game
29.9
52.9
faceoff %
49.6
22.3
hits / game
20.2
15.8
blocked shots / game
13.9
4.2
takeaways / game
4.8
15.6
giveaways / game
19.1

Rating Trend

WPG · LA · 22 days
Winnipeg JetsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 6−4
Oct 11, 2025at WPGWPG 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at LALA 4 − 1
Jan 10, 2025at WPGLA 2 − 1 OT
Nov 27, 2024at LALA 4 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at WPGWPG 4 − 3
Dec 13, 2023at LAWPG 5 − 2
Oct 17, 2023at WPGLA 5 − 1
Mar 25, 2023at LALA 4 − 1
Feb 28, 2023at WPGLA 6 − 5 SO
Oct 27, 2022at LAWPG 6 − 4

WPG · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 1, 2025vs PIT5 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs CHI6 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at MIN4 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 24, 2025vs CGY5 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025vs SEA0 − 3L
Oct 20, 2025at CGY2 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025at PHI5 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025at NYI5 − 2W

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 1, 2025vs NJ1 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at SJ4 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025at CHI3 − 1W
Oct 25, 2025at NSH4 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at MIN3 − 4L