bayesRatings

Devils at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Nov 1 · 8:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final NJ 4 – LA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1124
LA0011
Team box
NJ·LA
22
shots
44
0 of 0
power play
0 of 4
46.6
faceoff %
53.4
12
hits
10
28
blocked shots
14
8
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ4443.977
Darcy KuemperLA2118.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 0 · NJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 44%, LA 56% · Updated Nov 1, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 3.1 – 2.6 NJ
Expected total
5.7
DevilsThe matchupKings
+130Our fair odds−130
2.6Expected goals3.1
+0.12Power rating+0.13
3.7Goals / game3.0
3.2Allowed / game3.3
29.2Shots / game28.8
48.0Faceoff %49.3
21.8Hits / game21.0
8−3Season record5−7
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · LA chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+13044%————
LALos Angeles Kings−13056%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.4our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 9%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 23%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 7%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more34%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more23%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .855 save %, 4.66 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.51 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·LA
Oct 30, 2025 at SJ
last game
Oct 30, 2025 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
NJ·LA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.7
goals / game
3.0
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.3
8−3
season record
5−7
5−0
home record
0−4
3−3
away record
5−3
L2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
29.2
shots / game
28.8
48.0
faceoff %
49.3
21.8
hits / game
21.0
17.4
blocked shots / game
13.9
5.5
takeaways / game
4.8
16.2
giveaways / game
18.8

Rating Trend

NJ · LA · 19 days
New Jersey DevilsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 5−3
Jan 1, 2025at LALA 3 − 0
Dec 12, 2024at NJNJ 3 − 1
Mar 3, 2024at LALA 5 − 1
Feb 15, 2024at NJLA 2 − 1
Feb 23, 2023at NJNJ 4 − 3 OT
Jan 14, 2023at LANJ 5 − 2
Jan 23, 2022at NJLA 3 − 2
Nov 5, 2021at LALA 3 − 2 OT

NJ · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Oct 30, 2025at SJ2 − 5L
Oct 28, 2025at COL4 − 8L
Oct 26, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Oct 24, 2025vs SJ3 − 1W
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN4 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025at TOR5 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs EDM5 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025vs FLA3 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at CBJ3 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025at TB5 − 3W

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 30, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at SJ4 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025at CHI3 − 1W
Oct 25, 2025at NSH4 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at MIN3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025at WPG2 − 3L