bayesRatings

Senators at Ducks

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final OTT 3 – ANA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT1113
ANA0202
Team box
OTT·ANA
25
shots
25
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
54.1
faceoff %
45.9
29
hits
24
11
blocked shots
20
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Linus UllmarkOTT2523.920
Petr MrazekANA2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
OTT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 1 · OTT 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 46%, ANA 54% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.2 – 3.2 OTT
Expected total
6.4
SenatorsThe matchupDucks
+119Our fair odds−119
3.2Expected goals3.2
−0.00Power rating−0.06
3.4Goals / game3.7
3.4Allowed / game3.1
26.6Shots / game30.1
57.5Faceoff %46.4
23.4Hits / game21.1
9−10Season record13−7
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · ANA chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11946%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−11954%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.1our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 6%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 25%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more30%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more20%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.51 GAAstarted
ANAPetr Mrazek G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·ANA
Nov 15, 2025 vs LA
last game
Nov 19, 2025 vs BOS
4 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
OTT·ANA
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.4
goals / game
3.7
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.1
9−10
season record
13−7
6−5
home record
7−1
3−5
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
26.6
shots / game
30.1
57.5
faceoff %
46.4
23.4
hits / game
21.1
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.9
takeaways / game
4.5
14.9
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

OTT · ANA · 38 days
Ottawa SenatorsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ANA 5−3
Dec 11, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Mar 6, 2024at ANAANA 2 − 1
Feb 15, 2024at OTTANA 5 − 1
Dec 12, 2022at OTTOTT 3 − 0
Nov 25, 2022at ANAOTT 5 − 1
Jan 29, 2022at OTTANA 2 − 1
Nov 26, 2021at ANAANA 4 − 0

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025vs LA0 − 1L
Nov 13, 2025vs BOS5 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs DAL2 − 3L
Nov 9, 2025vs UTAH4 − 2W
Nov 8, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at MTL3 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025vs CGY4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at CHI3 − 7L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS7 − 2W

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W