bayesRatings

Mammoth at Ducks

NHL · Monday, Nov 17 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final UTAH 2 – ANA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
UTAH01102
ANA10113
Team box
UTAH·ANA
18
shots
26
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
51.0
faceoff %
49.0
17
hits
20
15
blocked shots
12
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alex KillornANA021
Jackson LaCombeANA105
Dylan GuentherUTAH105
Olen ZellwegerANA104
Troy TerryANA103
Logan CooleyUTAH102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH2623.885
Lukas DostalANA1816.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 1 · UTAH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 45%, ANA 55% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.4 – 3.1 UTAH
Expected total
6.4
MammothThe matchupDucks
+124Our fair odds−124
3.1Expected goals3.4
+0.01Power rating−0.02
3.2Goals / game3.7
3.1Allowed / game3.2
29.8Shots / game30.2
47.5Faceoff %46.5
17.4Hits / game21.4
10−8Season record11−7
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · ANA chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+12445%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−12455%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.3our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 22%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 13%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%
← UTAH wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more33%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more23%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .868 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 3.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·ANA
Nov 14, 2025 vs NYI
last game
Nov 15, 2025 at MIN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
UTAH·ANA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.2
goals / game
3.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
10−8
season record
11−7
5−2
home record
5−1
5−6
away record
6−6
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
7−3
29.8
shots / game
30.2
47.5
faceoff %
46.5
17.4
hits / game
21.4
13.6
blocked shots / game
14.1
3.8
takeaways / game
4.3
18.4
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

UTAH · ANA · 35 days
Utah MammothAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · ANA 2−1
Mar 12, 2025at UTAHUTAH 3 − 2
Dec 22, 2024at UTAHANA 5 − 4 SO
Oct 16, 2024at ANAANA 5 − 4 OT

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 14, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Nov 12, 2025vs BUF5 − 2W
Nov 9, 2025at OTT2 − 4L
Nov 8, 2025at MTL2 − 6L
Nov 5, 2025at TOR3 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025at BUF2 − 1W
Nov 2, 2025vs TB2 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at EDM3 − 6L
Oct 26, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at MIN6 − 2W

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025at FLA3 − 2W