bayesRatings

Senators at Bruins

NHL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final OTT 2 – BOS 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
OTT10102
BOS02013
Team box
OTT·BOS
22
shots
25
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
49.1
faceoff %
50.9
30
hits
25
18
blocked shots
13
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Claude GirouxOTT113
Andrew PeekeBOS022
Morgan GeekieBOS104
Michael AmadioOTT103
Pavel ZachaBOS102
Sean KuralyBOS101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Linus UllmarkOTT2522.880
Joonas KorpisaloBOS2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
OTT +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: BOS 1 · OTT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.2 – 3.1 OTT
Expected total
6.3
SenatorsThe matchupBruins
+116Our fair odds−116
3.1Expected goals3.2
+0.00Power rating−0.11
3.7Goals / game3.3
3.9Allowed / game3.4
28.9Shots / game26.4
58.8Faceoff %54.3
23.5Hits / game24.0
6−7Season record8−7
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11646%————
BOSBoston Bruins−11654%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 18%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 24%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more30%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more20%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 2.95 GAAstarted
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 3.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·BOS
Nov 1, 2025 at MTL
last game
Nov 4, 2025 at NYI
4 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
OTT·BOS
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
3.7
goals / game
3.3
3.9
goals allowed / game
3.4
6−7
season record
8−7
4−3
home record
6−3
2−4
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
5−5
28.9
shots / game
26.4
58.8
faceoff %
54.3
23.5
hits / game
24.0
15.1
blocked shots / game
17.3
4.7
takeaways / game
4.6
15.5
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

OTT · BOS · 24 days
Ottawa SenatorsBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Oct 27, 2025at OTTOTT 7 − 2
Mar 13, 2025at OTTOTT 6 − 3
Jan 23, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 0
Jan 18, 2025at OTTOTT 6 − 5 SO
Nov 9, 2024at BOSOTT 3 − 2 OT
Apr 16, 2024at BOSOTT 3 − 1
Mar 19, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Jan 25, 2024at OTTBOS 3 − 2 OT
Mar 21, 2023at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Feb 20, 2023at BOSBOS 3 − 1

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 1, 2025at MTL3 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025vs CGY4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at CHI3 − 7L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS7 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025at WSH7 − 1W
Oct 23, 2025vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025vs EDM2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025vs NYI4 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 15, 2025at BUF4 − 8L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Nov 4, 2025at NYI4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025vs CAR2 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at OTT2 − 7L
Oct 25, 2025vs COL3 − 2W
Oct 23, 2025vs ANA5 − 7L
Oct 21, 2025vs FLA3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at COL1 − 4L