bayesRatings

Bruins at Islanders

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final BOS 4 – NYI 3
← NHL / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
BOS021014
NYI021003
Team box
BOS·NYI
27
shots
33
1 of 4
power play
0 of 3
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
16
hits
15
16
blocked shots
14
10
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bo HorvatNYI205
Viktor ArvidssonBOS106
Pavel ZachaBOS103
Anthony DuclairNYI102
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS101
Mathew BarzalNYI015
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS3330.909
Ilya SorokinNYI2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYI 1 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 43%, NYI 57% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.2 – 3.0 BOS
Expected total
6.2
BruinsThe matchupIslanders
+133Our fair odds−133
3.0Expected goals3.2
−0.11Power rating−0.09
3.2Goals / game3.3
3.4Allowed / game3.5
26.4Shots / game30.3
54.6Faceoff %52.3
24.6Hits / game19.7
7−7Season record6−6
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYI chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+13343%————
NYINew York Islanders−13357%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins+0.3our margin————
NYINew York Islanders−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 17%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 25%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 12%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← BOS wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more32%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more22%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 3.42 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYI
Nov 1, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs CBJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
BOS·NYI
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.2
goals / game
3.3
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.5
7−7
season record
6−6
6−3
home record
4−2
1−4
away record
2−4
W3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
26.4
shots / game
30.3
54.6
faceoff %
52.3
24.6
hits / game
19.7
17.4
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.6
takeaways / game
3.9
16.3
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

BOS · NYI · 22 days
Boston BruinsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 3−7
Oct 28, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at BOSNYI 2 − 1
Jan 5, 2025at BOSNYI 5 − 4 OT
Nov 27, 2024at NYIBOS 6 − 3
Mar 2, 2024at NYINYI 5 − 1
Dec 15, 2023at NYIBOS 5 − 4 SO
Nov 9, 2023at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Feb 18, 2023at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Jan 18, 2023at NYIBOS 4 − 1
Dec 13, 2022at BOSBOS 4 − 3 SO

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Nov 1, 2025vs CAR2 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at OTT2 − 7L
Oct 25, 2025vs COL3 − 2W
Oct 23, 2025vs ANA5 − 7L
Oct 21, 2025vs FLA3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025at VGK5 − 6L

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 2, 2025vs CBJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at WSH3 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025at CAR2 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Oct 25, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025vs DET7 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at OTT5 − 4W
Oct 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L