bayesRatings

Islanders at Capitals

NHL · Friday, Oct 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NYI 3 – WSH 1
← NHL / Oct 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI0123
WSH0101
Team box
NYI·WSH
23
shots
23
0 of 5
power play
0 of 4
62.7
faceoff %
37.3
12
hits
14
16
blocked shots
13
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bo HorvatNYI103
Mathew BarzalNYI102
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI101
Tom WilsonWSH101
Emil HeinemanNYI013
Matt RoyWSH012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2322.957
Logan ThompsonWSH2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 1 · NYI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 38%, WSH 62% · Updated Oct 31, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.9
Expected score
WSH 3.5 – 2.5 NYI
Expected total
6.0
IslandersThe matchupCapitals
+164Our fair odds−164
2.5Expected goals3.5
−0.08Power rating+0.17
3.4Goals / game2.7
3.9Allowed / game2.2
30.2Shots / game29.1
49.7Faceoff %47.4
21.4Hits / game24.9
4−6Season record6−4
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+16438%————
WSHWashington Capitals−16462%————
SpreadWSH by 0.9
NYINew York Islanders+0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.9 expected
New York Islanders by 7 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 21%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 16%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 4%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more43%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more31%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.58 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .943 save %, 1.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·WSH
Oct 30, 2025 at CAR
last game
Oct 28, 2025 at DAL
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
NYI·WSH
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.4
goals / game
2.7
3.9
goals allowed / game
2.2
4−6
season record
6−4
3−2
home record
3−3
1−4
away record
3−1
L3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
30.2
shots / game
29.1
49.7
faceoff %
47.4
21.4
hits / game
24.9
15.7
blocked shots / game
12.4
3.7
takeaways / game
4.6
14.7
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

NYI · WSH · 18 days
New York IslandersWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Oct 11, 2025at NYIWSH 4 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at NYIWSH 3 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at NYINYI 4 − 1
Nov 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4 OT
Dec 29, 2023at NYINYI 5 − 1
Dec 20, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2 OT
Nov 11, 2023at NYIWSH 4 − 1
Nov 2, 2023at WSHNYI 3 − 0
Apr 10, 2023at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Mar 29, 2023at WSHNYI 2 − 1 SO

NYI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 30, 2025at CAR2 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Oct 25, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025vs DET7 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at OTT5 − 4W
Oct 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs WSH2 − 4L
Oct 9, 2025at PIT3 − 4L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 28, 2025at DAL0 − 1L
Oct 25, 2025vs OTT1 − 7L
Oct 24, 2025at CBJ5 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025vs SEA4 − 1W
Oct 19, 2025vs VAN3 − 4L
Oct 17, 2025vs MIN5 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 12, 2025at NYR1 − 0W
Oct 11, 2025at NYI4 − 2W
Oct 8, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L