bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Islanders

NHL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 4:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final CBJ 2 – NYI 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0112
NYI1023
Team box
CBJ·NYI
22
shots
39
0 of 4
power play
1 of 2
31.9
faceoff %
68.1
26
hits
10
13
blocked shots
10
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ3936.923
David RittichNYI2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 1 · CBJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 45%, NYI 55% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
Expected total
6.5
Blue JacketsThe matchupIslanders
+121Our fair odds−121
3.2Expected goals3.3
−0.03Power rating−0.08
3.5Goals / game3.4
3.0Allowed / game3.6
32.8Shots / game29.5
51.4Faceoff %50.9
20.5Hits / game20.5
7−4Season record5−6
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · NYI chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+12145%————
NYINew York Islanders−12155%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.1our margin————
NYINew York Islanders−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 16%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 25%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more29%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more20%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.97 GAAstarted
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .878 save %, 4.01 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·NYI
Nov 1, 2025 vs STL
last game
Oct 31, 2025 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CBJ·NYI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.5
goals / game
3.4
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.6
7−4
season record
5−6
3−3
home record
3−2
4−1
away record
2−4
W4
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
32.8
shots / game
29.5
51.4
faceoff %
50.9
20.5
hits / game
20.5
14.0
blocked shots / game
15.7
4.8
takeaways / game
3.7
15.8
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

CBJ · NYI · 20 days
Columbus Blue JacketsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Apr 17, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 1
Mar 24, 2025at NYICBJ 4 − 3 SO
Jan 20, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 1
Oct 30, 2024at CBJCBJ 2 − 0
Apr 4, 2024at CBJNYI 4 − 2
Dec 7, 2023at NYINYI 7 − 3
Oct 28, 2023at CBJNYI 2 − 0
Mar 24, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 4 OT
Dec 29, 2022at NYINYI 2 − 1
Nov 25, 2022at CBJNYI 3 − 2

CBJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 1, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at BUF4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025at PIT5 − 4W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH1 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at DAL5 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs COL1 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at MIN7 − 4W

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 31, 2025at WSH3 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025at CAR2 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Oct 25, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025vs DET7 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at OTT5 − 4W
Oct 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs WSH2 − 4L