bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Sabres

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 5:45 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final CBJ 4 – BUF 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
CBJ11114
BUF02103
Team box
CBJ·BUF
39
shots
38
1 of 1
power play
0 of 2
56.9
faceoff %
43.1
23
hits
13
14
blocked shots
20
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Miles WoodCBJ203
Zach WerenskiCBJ115
Egor ChinakhovCBJ112
Alex TuchBUF020
Josh DoanBUF105
Josh DunneBUF103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ3835.921
Alex LyonBUF3935.897

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: BUF 1 · CBJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 44%, BUF 56% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.7 – 3.3 CBJ
Expected total
7.0
Blue JacketsThe matchupSabres
+125Our fair odds−125
3.3Expected goals3.7
−0.03Power rating−0.05
3.1Goals / game3.0
3.1Allowed / game3.0
32.9Shots / game29.3
50.7Faceoff %41.5
22.6Hits / game20.1
4−4Season record4−5
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · BUF chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+12544%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−12556%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.4our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 19%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 20%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 8%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← CBJ wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more36%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more25%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .924 save %, 2.64 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·BUF
Oct 25, 2025 at PIT
last game
Oct 25, 2025 at TOR
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
CBJ·BUF
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.1
goals / game
3.0
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
4−4
season record
4−5
1−3
home record
4−2
3−1
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
32.9
shots / game
29.3
50.7
faceoff %
41.5
22.6
hits / game
20.1
13.5
blocked shots / game
15.8
5.0
takeaways / game
4.3
15.6
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

CBJ · BUF · 15 days
Columbus Blue JacketsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 5−5
Apr 10, 2025at CBJCBJ 3 − 2
Feb 4, 2025at BUFBUF 3 − 2
Oct 17, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 4
Feb 23, 2024at CBJBUF 2 − 1
Dec 30, 2023at BUFBUF 3 − 2 OT
Dec 19, 2023at BUFCBJ 9 − 4
Apr 14, 2023at CBJBUF 5 − 2
Feb 28, 2023at BUFCBJ 5 − 3
Dec 7, 2022at CBJBUF 9 − 4
Feb 20, 2022at CBJCBJ 7 − 3

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 25, 2025at PIT5 − 4W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH1 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at DAL5 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs COL1 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at MIN7 − 4W
Oct 9, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Apr 17, 2025vs NYI6 − 1W
Apr 15, 2025at PHI3 − 0W

BUF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 25, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 24, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Oct 22, 2025vs DET4 − 2W
Oct 20, 2025at MTL2 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025vs FLA3 − 0W
Oct 15, 2025vs OTT8 − 4W
Oct 13, 2025vs COL1 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at BOS1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs NYR0 − 4L
Apr 17, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W