bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Penguins

NHL · Saturday, Oct 25 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final CBJ 5 – PIT 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CBJ112015
PIT202004
Team box
CBJ·PIT
41
shots
31
0 of 2
power play
1 of 3
46.2
faceoff %
53.8
24
hits
18
15
blocked shots
16
11
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ3127.871
Arturs SilovsPIT4137.902

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PIT 1 · CBJ 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 45%, PIT 55% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.5 – 3.2 CBJ
Expected total
6.7
Blue JacketsThe matchupPenguins
+125Our fair odds−125
3.2Expected goals3.5
−0.05Power rating−0.09
2.9Goals / game3.5
3.0Allowed / game2.4
31.7Shots / game24.9
51.4Faceoff %49.8
22.4Hits / game16.9
3−4Season record6−2
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · PIT chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+12545%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−12555%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 19%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 13%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%
← CBJ wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more34%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more23%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 2.27 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·PIT
Oct 24, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Oct 23, 2025 at FLA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CBJ·PIT
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
2.9
goals / game
3.5
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.4
3−4
season record
6−2
1−3
home record
2−1
2−1
away record
4−1
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
31.7
shots / game
24.9
51.4
faceoff %
49.8
22.4
hits / game
16.9
13.3
blocked shots / game
18.5
4.6
takeaways / game
4.1
16.7
giveaways / game
17.0

Rating Trend

CBJ · PIT · 12 days
Columbus Blue JacketsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Mar 21, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 3
Jan 7, 2025at PITCBJ 4 − 3 SO
Nov 15, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 SO
Mar 28, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 2
Mar 5, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 3
Nov 14, 2023at CBJPIT 5 − 3
Apr 13, 2023at CBJCBJ 3 − 2 OT
Mar 7, 2023at PITPIT 5 − 4 OT
Dec 6, 2022at PITPIT 4 − 1

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH1 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at DAL5 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs COL1 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at MIN7 − 4W
Oct 9, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Apr 17, 2025vs NYI6 − 1W
Apr 15, 2025at PHI3 − 0W
Apr 13, 2025at WSH4 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 23, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Oct 21, 2025vs VAN5 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025at SJ3 − 0W
Oct 16, 2025at LA4 − 2W
Oct 14, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025vs NYR1 − 6L
Oct 9, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Apr 17, 2025vs WSH5 − 2W
Apr 13, 2025vs BOS1 − 4L