bayesRatings

Bruins at Ducks

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final BOS 3 – ANA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
BOS1113
ANA2114
Team box
BOS·ANA
39
shots
33
2 of 2
power play
1 of 3
57.9
faceoff %
42.1
38
hits
16
21
blocked shots
18
26
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joonas KorpisaloBOS3329.879
Lukas DostalANA3936.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 2 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, ANA 56% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
Expected total
6.4
BruinsThe matchupDucks
+127Our fair odds−127
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.07Power rating−0.06
3.3Goals / game3.7
3.3Allowed / game3.2
27.0Shots / game30.0
53.0Faceoff %46.6
24.3Hits / game21.4
12−9Season record12−7
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ANA chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+12744%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−12756%————
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Bruins+0.3our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 23%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 13%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more33%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more23%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.35 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.22 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ANA
Nov 17, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Nov 17, 2025 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
BOS·ANA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.3
goals / game
3.7
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.2
12−9
season record
12−7
8−4
home record
6−1
4−5
away record
6−6
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
7−3
27.0
shots / game
30.0
53.0
faceoff %
46.6
24.3
hits / game
21.4
16.6
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.7
takeaways / game
4.5
16.4
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

BOS · ANA · 37 days
Boston BruinsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ANA 6−3
Oct 23, 2025at BOSANA 7 − 5
Mar 26, 2025at ANAANA 6 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at BOSANA 3 − 2 OT
Oct 26, 2023at BOSANA 4 − 3 OT
Oct 22, 2023at ANABOS 3 − 1
Jan 8, 2023at ANABOS 7 − 1
Oct 20, 2022at BOSBOS 2 − 1 SO
Mar 1, 2022at ANAANA 4 − 3
Jan 24, 2022at BOSANA 5 − 3

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Nov 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025at MTL3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at OTT3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025at TOR5 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs OTT3 − 2W
Nov 4, 2025at NYI4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025vs CAR2 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYI5 − 2W

ANA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Oct 31, 2025vs DET5 − 2W