bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Bruins

NHL · Monday, Nov 17 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final CAR 3 – BOS 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CAR0213
BOS0011
Team box
CAR·BOS
32
shots
30
0 of 2
power play
1 of 4
43.9
faceoff %
56.1
19
hits
26
10
blocked shots
20
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Pyotr KochetkovCAR3029.967
Jeremy SwaymanBOS3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
CAR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 0 · CAR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 53%, BOS 47% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 0.5
Expected score
CAR 3.4 – 2.9 BOS
Expected total
6.2
HurricanesThe matchupBruins
−112Our fair odds+112
3.4Expected goals2.9
+0.29Power rating−0.07
3.7Goals / game3.4
2.9Allowed / game3.3
33.7Shots / game26.8
50.0Faceoff %52.8
19.6Hits / game24.2
12−6Season record12−8
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes−11253%————
BOSBoston Bruins+11247%————
SpreadCAR by 0.5
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.5 expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 14%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 17%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 25%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 4%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← CAR wins byBOS wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more38%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more26%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARPyotr Kochetkov G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 2.93 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .923 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·BOS
Nov 15, 2025 vs EDM
last game
Nov 15, 2025 at MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
CAR·BOS
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.7
goals / game
3.4
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.3
12−6
season record
12−8
6−3
home record
8−3
6−3
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
33.7
shots / game
26.8
50.0
faceoff %
52.8
19.6
hits / game
24.2
12.3
blocked shots / game
16.4
5.4
takeaways / game
4.8
17.3
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

CAR · BOS · 35 days
Carolina HurricanesBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Nov 1, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Apr 5, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 1
Mar 6, 2025at CARCAR 3 − 2
Oct 31, 2024at CARCAR 8 − 2
Apr 9, 2024at BOSCAR 4 − 1
Apr 4, 2024at CARBOS 4 − 1
Jan 24, 2024at BOSCAR 3 − 2
Mar 26, 2023at CARBOS 4 − 3 SO
Jan 29, 2023at CARCAR 4 − 1
Nov 25, 2022at BOSBOS 3 − 2 OT

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025vs EDM3 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs VAN4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Nov 4, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS1 − 2L
Oct 30, 2025vs NYI6 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs VGK3 − 6L

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 15, 2025at MTL3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at OTT3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025at TOR5 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs OTT3 − 2W
Nov 4, 2025at NYI4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025vs CAR2 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at OTT2 − 7L