bayesRatings

Bruins at Kings

NHL · Friday, Nov 21 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final BOS 2 – LA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
BOS00112
LA00101
Team box
BOS·LA
26
shots
32
0 of 2
power play
0 of 5
38.2
faceoff %
61.8
28
hits
12
23
blocked shots
12
20
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jeremy SwaymanBOS3231.969
Darcy KuemperLA2624.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
BOS +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: LA 0 · BOS 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 39%, LA 61% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 0.7
Expected score
LA 3.2 – 2.5 BOS
Expected total
5.8
BruinsThe matchupKings
+155Our fair odds−155
2.5Expected goals3.2
−0.07Power rating+0.15
3.3Goals / game2.8
3.3Allowed / game2.9
27.5Shots / game29.2
53.2Faceoff %49.4
24.9Hits / game17.6
12−10Season record10−11
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LA chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Bruins+15539%————
LALos Angeles Kings−15561%————
SpreadLA by 0.7
BOSBoston Bruins+0.7our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.7 expected
Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 1%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 7%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 7%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 20%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 15%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%
← BOS wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more27%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.61 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LA
Nov 19, 2025 at ANA
last game
Nov 20, 2025 at SJ
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
BOS·LA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
3.3
goals / game
2.8
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.9
12−10
season record
10−11
8−4
home record
1−6
4−6
away record
9−5
L2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
27.5
shots / game
29.2
53.2
faceoff %
49.4
24.9
hits / game
17.6
16.8
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.6
takeaways / game
4.3
16.4
giveaways / game
17.2

Rating Trend

BOS · LA · 39 days
Boston BruinsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 4−4
Mar 23, 2025at LALA 7 − 2
Oct 12, 2024at BOSBOS 2 − 1 OT
Feb 17, 2024at BOSLA 5 − 4 OT
Oct 21, 2023at LABOS 4 − 2
Jan 5, 2023at LABOS 5 − 2
Dec 15, 2022at BOSLA 3 − 2 SO
Mar 7, 2022at BOSLA 3 − 2 OT
Feb 28, 2022at LABOS 7 − 0

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Nov 19, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025at MTL3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at OTT3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025at TOR5 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs OTT3 − 2W
Nov 4, 2025at NYI4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025vs CAR2 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025vs BUF4 − 3W

LA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 20, 2025at SJ3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W
Nov 13, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025at MTL5 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at PIT3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs WPG3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025vs NJ1 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025vs DET3 − 4L