bayesRatings

Kings at Sharks

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM CT · SAP Center at San Jose · Final LA 3 – SJ 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
LA111003
SJ210014
Team box
LA·SJ
34
shots
24
0 of 4
power play
0 of 3
53.3
faceoff %
46.7
12
hits
26
10
blocked shots
24
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA2421.875
Yaroslav AskarovSJ3431.912

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SJ +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: SJ 1 · LA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 63%, SJ 37% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 1.1
Expected score
LA 3.5 – 2.3 SJ
Expected total
5.8
KingsThe matchupSharks
−173Our fair odds+173
3.5Expected goals2.3
+0.15Power rating−0.65
2.8Goals / game3.0
2.9Allowed / game3.2
29.0Shots / game24.1
49.2Faceoff %48.3
17.9Hits / game19.6
10−10Season record9−11
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · SJ chance
Our model fair63.3%36.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings−17363%————
SJSan Jose Sharks+17337%————
SpreadLA by 1.1
LALos Angeles Kings−1.1our margin————
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 18%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 22%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 6%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%
← LA wins bySJ wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more34%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.550%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .962 save %, 1.19 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·SJ
Nov 17, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 18, 2025 vs UTAH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
LA·SJ
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
2.8
goals / game
3.0
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.2
10−10
season record
9−11
1−6
home record
5−6
9−4
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
29.0
shots / game
24.1
49.2
faceoff %
48.3
17.9
hits / game
19.6
13.7
blocked shots / game
16.0
4.2
takeaways / game
4.0
17.3
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

LA · SJ · 38 days
Los Angeles KingsSan Jose Sharks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SJ 3−7
Oct 28, 2025at SJLA 4 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at LALA 8 − 1
Nov 25, 2024at SJSJ 7 − 2
Oct 29, 2024at SJSJ 4 − 2
Oct 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at SJLA 2 − 1
Jan 22, 2024at LASJ 4 − 3 SO
Dec 27, 2023at LALA 5 − 1
Dec 19, 2023at SJLA 4 − 1
Jan 11, 2023at LALA 4 − 3

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W
Nov 13, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025at MTL5 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at PIT3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs WPG3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025vs NJ1 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025at SJ4 − 3W

SJ · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 18, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at SEA1 − 4L
Nov 13, 2025at CGY0 − 2L
Nov 11, 2025at MIN2 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025vs FLA3 − 1W
Nov 7, 2025vs WPG2 − 1W
Nov 5, 2025at SEA6 − 1W
Nov 2, 2025vs DET2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs COL3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs NJ5 − 2W