bayesRatings

Golden Knights at Ducks

NHL · Saturday, Nov 22 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final VGK 3 – ANA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
VGK30003
ANA21014
Team box
VGK·ANA
32
shots
33
1 of 4
power play
0 of 2
66.1
faceoff %
33.9
15
hits
19
20
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Akira SchmidVGK3329.879
Lukas DostalANA3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
VGK +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 1 · VGK 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VGK 50%, ANA 50% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
VGK 3.2 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.1
Golden KnightsThe matchupDucks
+101Our fair odds−101
3.2Expected goals2.9
+0.15Power rating−0.06
3.2Goals / game3.6
2.8Allowed / game3.1
29.6Shots / game29.9
53.3Faceoff %46.4
20.1Hits / game21.2
10−10Season record13−8
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VGK chance · ANA chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VGKVegas Golden Knights+10150%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10150%————
Spreadabout even
VGKVegas Golden Knights−0.3our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vegas Golden Knights by 6 goals: 1%Vegas Golden Knights by 5 goals: 3%Vegas Golden Knights by 4 goals: 7%Vegas Golden Knights by 3 goals: 13%Vegas Golden Knights by 2 goals: 11%Vegas Golden Knights by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 26%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← VGK wins byANA wins by →
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 2 or more35%
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 3 or more24%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VGKAkira Schmid G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VGK·ANA
Nov 20, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 20, 2025 vs OTT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
VGK·ANA
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.2
goals / game
3.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
10−10
season record
13−8
5−6
home record
7−2
5−4
away record
6−6
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
29.6
shots / game
29.9
53.3
faceoff %
46.4
20.1
hits / game
21.2
15.8
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.3
takeaways / game
4.6
16.5
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

VGK · ANA · 40 days
Vegas Golden KnightsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 4−6
Nov 8, 2025at VGKANA 4 − 3 OT
Dec 23, 2024at VGKVGK 3 − 1
Dec 4, 2024at ANAVGK 4 − 1
Nov 13, 2024at ANAVGK 3 − 2
Oct 13, 2024at VGKVGK 3 − 1
Apr 18, 2024at VGKANA 4 − 1
Dec 27, 2023at ANAANA 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2023at ANAANA 4 − 2
Oct 14, 2023at VGKVGK 4 − 1
Feb 12, 2023at VGKVGK 7 − 2

VGK · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 20, 2025at UTAH4 − 1W
Nov 18, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025at STL4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYI3 − 4L
Nov 10, 2025vs FLA2 − 3L
Nov 8, 2025vs ANA3 − 4L
Nov 6, 2025vs TB3 − 6L
Nov 4, 2025vs DET1 − 0W
Oct 31, 2025vs COL2 − 4L

ANA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 20, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W
Nov 4, 2025vs FLA7 − 3W