bayesRatings

Canucks at Ducks

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final VAN 5 – ANA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN2125
ANA0314
Team box
VAN·ANA
28
shots
41
1 of 3
power play
1 of 6
49.2
faceoff %
50.8
13
hits
15
17
blocked shots
16
14
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Nikita TolopiloVAN4137.902
Petr MrazekANA2723.852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 0 · VAN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 42%, ANA 58% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
ANA by 0.5
Expected score
ANA 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
Expected total
6.5
CanucksThe matchupDucks
+135Our fair odds−135
3.0Expected goals3.5
−0.14Power rating−0.06
3.1Goals / game3.6
3.7Allowed / game3.1
26.7Shots / game30.0
47.4Faceoff %45.8
21.7Hits / game21.1
9−14Season record14−8
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · ANA chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13542%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−13558%————
SpreadANA by 0.5
VANVancouver Canucks+0.5our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Anaheim Ducks by 0.5 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 20%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 14%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more37%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more26%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANNikita Tolopilo G · last 1 start: .938 save %, 0.93 GAAstarted
ANAPetr Mrazek G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 3.60 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·ANA
Nov 23, 2025 vs CGY
last game
Nov 22, 2025 vs VGK
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
VAN·ANA
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.1
goals / game
3.6
3.7
goals allowed / game
3.1
9−14
season record
14−8
3−8
home record
8−2
6−6
away record
6−6
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
26.7
shots / game
30.0
47.4
faceoff %
45.8
21.7
hits / game
21.1
15.9
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.0
takeaways / game
4.7
15.1
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

VAN · ANA · 44 days
Vancouver CanucksAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 1−9
Apr 5, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Mar 5, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2024at ANAVAN 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2
Mar 3, 2024at ANAVAN 2 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2023at ANAVAN 3 − 2
Mar 19, 2023at ANAVAN 2 − 1
Mar 8, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 2 OT

VAN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 23, 2025vs CGY2 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025vs DAL2 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at FLA5 − 8L
Nov 16, 2025at TB6 − 2W
Nov 14, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Nov 11, 2025vs WPG3 − 5L
Nov 9, 2025vs COL4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs CHI2 − 5L
Nov 3, 2025at NSH5 − 4W

ANA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 22, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025at DAL7 − 5W