bayesRatings

Ducks at Blackhawks

NHL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 2:30 PM CT · United Center · Final ANA 3 – CHI 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA3003
CHI1225
Team box
ANA·CHI
26
shots
18
0 of 3
power play
2 of 4
53.7
faceoff %
46.3
22
hits
15
9
blocked shots
19
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ville HussoANA10.000
Petr MrazekANA1613.812
Spencer KnightCHI2623.885

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 2 · ANA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 49%, CHI 51% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHI 3.1 – 3.1 ANA
Expected total
6.2
DucksThe matchupBlackhawks
+106Our fair odds−106
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.06Power rating−0.24
3.7Goals / game3.1
3.2Allowed / game2.9
30.5Shots / game25.5
46.1Faceoff %46.7
20.8Hits / game18.1
15−9Season record10−14
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · CHI chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+10649%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks−10651%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim DucksPKour margin————
CHIChicago BlackhawksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 23%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 10%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 11%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more28%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 3 or more19%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAPetr Mrazek G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 3.22 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·CHI
Nov 28, 2025 vs LA
last game
Nov 28, 2025 vs NSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
ANA·CHI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
3.7
goals / game
3.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.9
15−9
season record
10−14
9−3
home record
5−8
6−6
away record
5−6
W1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
4−6
30.5
shots / game
25.5
46.1
faceoff %
46.7
20.8
hits / game
18.1
14.8
blocked shots / game
12.1
5.0
takeaways / game
5.2
15.3
giveaways / game
17.4

Rating Trend

ANA · CHI · 47 days
Anaheim DucksChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 6−4
Oct 19, 2025at CHICHI 2 − 1 OT
Mar 1, 2025at ANACHI 6 − 3
Nov 19, 2024at CHIANA 3 − 2
Nov 3, 2024at ANACHI 4 − 2
Mar 21, 2024at ANAANA 4 − 0
Mar 12, 2024at CHICHI 7 − 2
Dec 7, 2023at CHICHI 1 − 0
Feb 27, 2023at ANAANA 4 − 2
Feb 7, 2023at CHIANA 3 − 2 OT
Nov 12, 2022at ANACHI 3 − 2

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 28, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Nov 26, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 19, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Nov 17, 2025vs UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at MIN0 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025at DET3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025vs WPG4 − 1W

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Nov 28, 2025vs NSH3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025vs COL0 − 1L
Nov 21, 2025at BUF3 − 9L
Nov 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025vs CGY5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at DET5 − 1W
Nov 7, 2025at CGY4 − 0W