bayesRatings

Avalanche at Blackhawks

NHL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 6:00 PM CT · United Center · Final COL 1 – CHI 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL0101
CHI0000
Team box
COL·CHI
26
shots
22
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
43.1
faceoff %
56.9
29
hits
20
14
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cale MakarCOL103
Tristen NielsenCOL012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL22221.000
Spencer KnightCHI2625.962

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
COL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 0 · COL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 61%, CHI 39% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.0
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.6 CHI
Expected total
6.2
AvalancheThe matchupBlackhawks
−158Our fair odds+158
3.6Expected goals2.6
+0.51Power rating−0.19
4.1Goals / game3.3
2.4Allowed / game2.9
33.4Shots / game25.0
49.1Faceoff %46.2
18.3Hits / game18.5
15−6Season record10−11
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair61.3%38.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−15861%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+15839%————
SpreadCOL by 1.0
COLColorado Avalanche−1our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.0 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 10%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 22%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byCHI wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more46%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more33%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .939 save %, 1.60 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 2.19 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHI
Nov 22, 2025 at NSH
last game
Nov 21, 2025 at BUF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
COL·CHI
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.1
goals / game
3.3
2.4
goals allowed / game
2.9
15−6
season record
10−11
8−2
home record
5−5
7−4
away record
5−6
W8
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
33.4
shots / game
25.0
49.1
faceoff %
46.2
18.3
hits / game
18.5
14.0
blocked shots / game
12.1
4.9
takeaways / game
5.4
15.5
giveaways / game
17.3

Rating Trend

COL · CHI · 41 days
Colorado AvalancheChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 4−6
Apr 2, 2025at CHICOL 3 − 2 SO
Mar 10, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0
Jan 8, 2025at CHICHI 3 − 1
Oct 28, 2024at COLCHI 5 − 2
Mar 4, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 0
Feb 29, 2024at CHICOL 5 − 0
Dec 19, 2023at CHICHI 3 − 2
Oct 19, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 0
Mar 20, 2023at COLCOL 5 − 0
Jan 12, 2023at CHICHI 3 − 2

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Nov 22, 2025at NSH3 − 0W
Nov 20, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 21, 2025at BUF3 − 9L
Nov 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025vs CGY5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at DET5 − 1W
Nov 7, 2025at CGY4 − 0W
Nov 5, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L