bayesRatings

Rangers at Avalanche

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NYR 3 – COL 6
← NHL / Nov 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1113
COL1146
Team box
NYR·COL
19
shots
35
2 of 2
power play
1 of 6
60.7
faceoff %
39.3
22
hits
17
26
blocked shots
13
12
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cale MakarCOL219
Nathan MacKinnonCOL214
Martin NecasCOL033
J.T. MillerNYR203
Brock NelsonCOL114
Adam FoxNYR022
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR3329.879
Scott WedgewoodCOL1916.842

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · NYR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 33%, COL 67% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.2
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.6 NYR
Expected total
6.4
RangersThe matchupAvalanche
+200Our fair odds−200
2.6Expected goals3.8
+0.03Power rating+0.51
2.5Goals / game4.1
2.5Allowed / game2.5
27.1Shots / game33.7
52.5Faceoff %50.0
25.0Hits / game17.8
10−11Season record13−6
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · COL chance
Our model fair33.3%66.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+20033%————
COLColorado Avalanche−20067%————
SpreadCOL by 1.2
NYRNew York Rangers+1.2our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.2 expected
New York Rangers by 7 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more48%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more36%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .949 save %, 1.40 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·COL
Nov 18, 2025 at VGK
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs NYI
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
NYR·COL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
2.5
goals / game
4.1
2.5
goals allowed / game
2.5
10−11
season record
13−6
1−8
home record
7−2
9−3
away record
6−4
L2
streak
W6
6−4
last 10
8−2
27.1
shots / game
33.7
52.5
faceoff %
50.0
25.0
hits / game
17.8
14.5
blocked shots / game
14.1
5.0
takeaways / game
5.0
13.8
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NYR · COL · 38 days
New York RangersColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · COL 5−3
Jan 26, 2025at NYRCOL 5 − 4
Jan 14, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Mar 28, 2024at COLNYR 3 − 2 SO
Feb 5, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1 OT
Dec 9, 2022at COLNYR 2 − 1 SO
Oct 25, 2022at NYRCOL 3 − 2 SO
Dec 14, 2021at COLCOL 4 − 2
Dec 8, 2021at NYRCOL 7 − 3

NYR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 18, 2025at VGK2 − 3L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at CBJ2 − 1W
Nov 12, 2025at TB7 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L
Nov 7, 2025at DET4 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs CAR0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at EDM4 − 3W

COL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Nov 16, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W
Oct 26, 2025at NJ3 − 4L