bayesRatings

Rangers at Lightning

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final NYR 7 – TB 3
← NHL / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR4127
TB3003
Team box
NYR·TB
21
shots
36
1 of 3
power play
0 of 3
54.8
faceoff %
45.2
21
hits
26
15
blocked shots
19
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Artemi PanarinNYR041
Vincent TrocheckNYR202
Will CuylleNYR202
Adam FoxNYR020
Jake GuentzelTB105
Alexis LafreniereNYR103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR3633.917
Jonas JohanssonTB76.857
Andrei VasilevskiyTB138.615

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
NYR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · NYR 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 40%, TB 60% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 3.4 – 2.6 NYR
Expected total
5.9
RangersThe matchupLightning
+150Our fair odds−150
2.6Expected goals3.4
+0.02Power rating+0.18
2.4Goals / game3.1
2.5Allowed / game2.7
28.1Shots / game26.3
53.4Faceoff %44.8
24.4Hits / game19.5
8−9Season record8−7
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · TB chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+15040%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−15060%————
SpreadTB by 0.8
NYRNew York Rangers+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.8 expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 23%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more42%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more29%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 2.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·TB
Nov 10, 2025 vs NSH
last game
Nov 8, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
NYR·TB
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
2.4
goals / game
3.1
2.5
goals allowed / game
2.7
8−9
season record
8−7
1−7
home record
4−3
7−2
away record
4−4
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
28.1
shots / game
26.3
53.4
faceoff %
44.8
24.4
hits / game
19.5
14.3
blocked shots / game
14.3
5.2
takeaways / game
4.3
13.0
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NYR · TB · 30 days
New York RangersTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 17, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Apr 7, 2025at NYRTB 5 − 1
Dec 28, 2024at TBTB 6 − 2
Mar 14, 2024at TBTB 6 − 3
Feb 7, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Dec 30, 2023at TBNYR 5 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 3
Dec 29, 2022at TBTB 2 − 1 SO
Oct 11, 2022at NYRNYR 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2022at TBTB 2 − 1post

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 10, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L
Nov 7, 2025at DET4 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs CAR0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at VAN2 − 0W
Oct 26, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025vs MIN1 − 3L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 8, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at VGK6 − 3W
Nov 4, 2025at COL2 − 3L
Nov 2, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 26, 2025vs VGK2 − 1W
Oct 25, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025vs CHI2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L