bayesRatings

Islanders at Rangers

NHL · Saturday, Nov 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final NYI 5 – NYR 0
← NHL / Nov 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI2125
NYR0000
Team box
NYI·NYR
26
shots
33
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
51.8
faceoff %
48.2
18
hits
14
18
blocked shots
14
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI122
Jonathan DrouinNYI121
Bo HorvatNYI205
Anthony DuclairNYI020
Anders LeeNYI101
Kyle PalmieriNYI013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI33331.000
Igor ShesterkinNYR2521.840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +5
NYI +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · NYI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 40%, NYR 60% · Updated Nov 8, 2025

Expected margin
NYR by 0.7
Expected score
NYR 3.2 – 2.5 NYI
Expected total
5.8
IslandersThe matchupRangers
+148Our fair odds−148
2.5Expected goals3.2
−0.09Power rating+0.04
3.2Goals / game2.3
3.6Allowed / game2.3
30.3Shots / game28.4
52.3Faceoff %53.9
19.0Hits / game24.6
6−8Season record7−8
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · NYR chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+14840%————
NYRNew York Rangers−14860%————
SpreadNYR by 0.7
NYINew York Islanders+0.7our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.7 expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 22%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 15%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%
← NYI wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 2.72 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.53 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·NYR
Nov 7, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Nov 7, 2025 at DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NYI·NYR
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.2
goals / game
2.3
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.3
6−8
season record
7−8
4−4
home record
0−6
2−4
away record
7−2
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
30.3
shots / game
28.4
52.3
faceoff %
53.9
19.0
hits / game
24.6
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.5
3.9
takeaways / game
5.2
16.0
giveaways / game
12.5

Rating Trend

NYI · NYR · 26 days
New York IslandersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 8−2
Apr 10, 2025at NYINYR 9 − 2
Mar 3, 2025at NYRNYR 4 − 0
Feb 25, 2025at NYINYR 5 − 1
Nov 3, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 2 SO
Apr 9, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 2
Mar 17, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Feb 18, 2024at NYINYR 6 − 5 OT
Dec 22, 2022at NYRNYR 5 − 3
Nov 8, 2022at NYRNYI 4 − 3

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 7, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs BOS3 − 4L
Nov 2, 2025vs CBJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at WSH3 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025at CAR2 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Oct 25, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025vs DET7 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at OTT5 − 4W

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025at DET4 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs CAR0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at VAN2 − 0W
Oct 26, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025vs MIN1 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025at TOR1 − 2L