bayesRatings

Rangers at Blue Jackets

NHL · Saturday, Nov 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final NYR 2 – CBJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
NYR010012
CBJ010001
Team box
NYR·CBJ
33
shots
27
1 of 2
power play
1 of 2
47.6
faceoff %
52.4
31
hits
27
12
blocked shots
19
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR2726.963
Jet GreavesCBJ3332.970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CBJ 0 · NYR 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 46%, CBJ 54% · Updated Nov 15, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.2 – 3.0 NYR
Expected total
6.3
RangersThe matchupBlue Jackets
+119Our fair odds−119
3.0Expected goals3.2
+0.02Power rating−0.05
2.7Goals / game3.2
2.6Allowed / game3.2
27.7Shots / game31.7
53.5Faceoff %51.5
24.2Hits / game18.9
9−9Season record9−8
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+11946%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11954%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.2our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 5%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 19%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 12%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more31%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more21%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.82 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .886 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·CBJ
Nov 12, 2025 at TB
last game
Nov 13, 2025 vs EDM
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
NYR·CBJ
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
2.7
goals / game
3.2
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.2
9−9
season record
9−8
1−7
home record
4−3
8−2
away record
5−5
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.7
shots / game
31.7
53.5
faceoff %
51.5
24.2
hits / game
18.9
14.3
blocked shots / game
13.9
5.2
takeaways / game
4.9
13.2
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

NYR · CBJ · 33 days
New York RangersColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Mar 15, 2025at CBJNYR 4 − 0
Mar 9, 2025at NYRCBJ 7 − 3
Feb 8, 2025at CBJNYR 4 − 3
Jan 18, 2025at NYRNYR 1 − 0 SO
Feb 28, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Feb 25, 2024at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Nov 12, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 3 SO
Oct 14, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 3
Apr 8, 2023at CBJNYR 4 − 0
Mar 28, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 2

NYR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 12, 2025at TB7 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L
Nov 7, 2025at DET4 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs CAR0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at VAN2 − 0W
Oct 26, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 13, 2025vs EDM5 − 4W
Nov 11, 2025at SEA2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025at EDM4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025at VAN3 − 4L
Nov 5, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Nov 2, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at BUF4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025at PIT5 − 4W