bayesRatings

Islanders at Avalanche

NHL · Sunday, Nov 16 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NYI 1 – COL 4
← NHL / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1001
COL0224
Team box
NYI·COL
29
shots
28
0 of 4
power play
0 of 3
57.4
faceoff %
42.6
11
hits
19
14
blocked shots
11
11
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brock NelsonCOL113
Ross ColtonCOL104
Martin NecasCOL103
Victor OlofssonCOL102
Emil HeinemanNYI101
Kyle PalmieriNYI013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2724.889
Scott WedgewoodCOL2928.966

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · NYI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 33%, COL 67% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.5
Expected score
COL 4.2 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
6.8
IslandersThe matchupAvalanche
+199Our fair odds−199
2.6Expected goals4.2
−0.07Power rating+0.39
3.3Goals / game4.1
3.2Allowed / game2.6
28.8Shots / game34.1
53.0Faceoff %50.4
18.2Hits / game17.8
10−8Season record12−6
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · COL chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+19933%————
COLColorado Avalanche−19967%————
SpreadCOL by 1.5
NYINew York Islanders+1.5our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.5 expected
New York Islanders by 8 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 7 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more54%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more41%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal34%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .939 save %, 1.75 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·COL
Nov 14, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 13, 2025 vs BUF
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
NYI·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
3.3
goals / game
4.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.6
10−8
season record
12−6
4−4
home record
6−2
6−4
away record
6−4
W4
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
28.8
shots / game
34.1
53.0
faceoff %
50.4
18.2
hits / game
17.8
15.2
blocked shots / game
14.3
3.9
takeaways / game
4.9
15.4
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

NYI · COL · 34 days
New York IslandersColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · COL 5−3
Jan 28, 2025at NYINYI 5 − 2
Oct 14, 2024at COLNYI 6 − 2
Jan 2, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 4 OT
Oct 24, 2023at NYICOL 7 − 4
Dec 19, 2022at COLCOL 1 − 0 SO
Oct 29, 2022at NYINYI 5 − 4
Mar 7, 2022at NYICOL 5 − 4
Mar 1, 2022at COLCOL 5 − 3

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Nov 14, 2025at UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025at NJ3 − 2W
Nov 8, 2025at NYR5 − 0W
Nov 7, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs BOS3 − 4L
Nov 2, 2025vs CBJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at WSH3 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025at CAR2 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W
Oct 26, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 25, 2025at BOS2 − 3L