bayesRatings

Kraken at Blackhawks

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final SEA 3 – CHI 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA0033
CHI0202
Team box
SEA·CHI
27
shots
24
1 of 3
power play
1 of 2
51.0
faceoff %
49.0
16
hits
11
10
blocked shots
6
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joey DaccordSEA2422.917
Spencer KnightCHI2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 2 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 47%, CHI 53% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHI 3.0 – 3.0 SEA
Expected total
5.9
KrakenThe matchupBlackhawks
+112Our fair odds−112
3.0Expected goals3.0
−0.08Power rating−0.19
2.7Goals / game3.4
2.8Allowed / game2.6
24.4Shots / game25.2
45.0Faceoff %46.3
18.8Hits / game19.2
9−10Season record10−9
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CHI chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+11247%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks−11253%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle KrakenPKour margin————
CHIChicago BlackhawksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 6%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 11%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 18%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 25%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 10%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← SEA wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more27%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 3 or more18%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.38 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .938 save %, 2.16 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CHI
Nov 18, 2025 at DET
last game
Nov 18, 2025 vs CGY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
SEA·CHI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
2.7
goals / game
3.4
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.6
9−10
season record
10−9
6−4
home record
5−4
3−6
away record
5−5
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
24.4
shots / game
25.2
45.0
faceoff %
46.3
18.8
hits / game
19.2
16.4
blocked shots / game
12.2
4.5
takeaways / game
5.4
16.2
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

SEA · CHI · 38 days
Seattle KrakenChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Nov 3, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 1
Mar 18, 2025at CHISEA 6 − 2
Dec 19, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 1
Nov 14, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jan 24, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 2
Dec 14, 2023at SEASEA 7 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at CHICHI 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2023at SEASEA 7 − 3
Jan 14, 2023at CHISEA 8 − 5
Oct 23, 2022at CHICHI 5 − 4

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 18, 2025at DET2 − 4L
Nov 15, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs WPG5 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs CBJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025at DAL1 − 2L
Nov 8, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs SJ1 − 6L
Nov 3, 2025vs CHI3 − 1W
Nov 1, 2025vs NYR2 − 3L
Oct 28, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 18, 2025vs CGY5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at DET5 − 1W
Nov 7, 2025at CGY4 − 0W
Nov 5, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025at WPG3 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs OTT7 − 3W