bayesRatings

Avalanche at Predators

NHL · Saturday, Nov 22 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final COL 3 – NSH 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
COL1023
NSH0000
Team box
COL·NSH
26
shots
35
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
42.9
faceoff %
57.1
28
hits
15
13
blocked shots
8
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL35351.000
Juuse SarosNSH2423.958

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
COL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 0 · COL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 65%, NSH 35% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.4
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.3 NSH
Expected total
6.1
AvalancheThe matchupPredators
−187Our fair odds+187
3.8Expected goals2.3
+0.51Power rating−0.37
4.2Goals / game2.5
2.5Allowed / game3.5
33.8Shots / game27.0
49.4Faceoff %52.9
17.8Hits / game19.9
14−6Season record6−14
9−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NSH chance
Our model fair65.1%34.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−18765%————
NSHNashville Predators+18735%————
SpreadCOL by 1.4
COLColorado Avalanche−1.4our margin————
NSHNashville Predators+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.4 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 20%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byNSH wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more52%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more39%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more11%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .856 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NSH
Nov 20, 2025 vs NYR
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at PIT
1 day
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
COL·NSH
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.2
goals / game
2.5
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.5
14−6
season record
6−14
8−2
home record
5−7
6−4
away record
1−7
W7
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
2−8
33.8
shots / game
27.0
49.4
faceoff %
52.9
17.8
hits / game
19.9
14.1
blocked shots / game
11.2
5.0
takeaways / game
5.2
15.8
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

COL · NSH · 40 days
Colorado AvalancheNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 4−6
Feb 22, 2025at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Nov 20, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 3
Apr 14, 2023at NSHCOL 4 − 3
Dec 23, 2022at NSHCOL 3 − 2 OT
Dec 17, 2022at COLCOL 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Nov 20, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W

NSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Nov 16, 2025at PIT0 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025at NYR3 − 6L
Nov 8, 2025vs DAL4 − 5L
Nov 6, 2025vs PHI1 − 3L
Nov 4, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 3, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 1, 2025vs CGY4 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at PHI1 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025vs TB2 − 5L