bayesRatings

Flyers at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final PHI 3 – NSH 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PHI0213
NSH1001
Team box
PHI·NSH
26
shots
24
0 of 1
power play
0 of 3
48.1
faceoff %
51.9
25
hits
22
17
blocked shots
12
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Travis KonecnyPHI112
Cam YorkPHI022
Ryan O'ReillyNSH104
Noah CatesPHI101
Matvei MichkovPHI101
Christian DvorakPHI014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dan VladarPHI2423.958
Juuse SarosNSH2523.920

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 1 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 45%, NSH 55% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 3.0 – 3.0 PHI
Expected total
5.9
FlyersThe matchupPredators
+120Our fair odds−120
3.0Expected goals3.0
−0.19Power rating−0.27
2.9Goals / game2.6
2.7Allowed / game3.4
24.9Shots / game27.6
49.1Faceoff %52.8
20.8Hits / game19.6
7−6Season record5−10
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NSH chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+12045%————
NSHNashville Predators−12055%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPKour margin————
NSHNashville PredatorsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 6%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 11%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 10%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 17%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 27%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← PHI wins byNSH wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more27%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more17%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .887 save %, 3.53 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NSH
Nov 4, 2025 at MTL
last game
Nov 4, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
PHI·NSH
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
2.9
goals / game
2.6
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.4
7−6
season record
5−10
6−3
home record
4−5
1−3
away record
1−5
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
24.9
shots / game
27.6
49.1
faceoff %
52.8
20.8
hits / game
19.6
14.8
blocked shots / game
12.1
3.6
takeaways / game
5.5
16.5
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

PHI · NSH · 24 days
Philadelphia FlyersNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NSH 4−5
Oct 30, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at NSHPHI 3 − 2 OT
Dec 21, 2023at PHINSH 4 − 2
Dec 12, 2023at NSHNSH 3 − 2 OT
Feb 11, 2023at PHINSH 2 − 1 OT
Oct 22, 2022at NSHPHI 3 − 1
Mar 27, 2022at NSHNSH 5 − 4
Mar 17, 2022at PHIPHI 5 − 4

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025at MTL5 − 4W
Nov 2, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Nov 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at OTT1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA5 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L

NSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 4, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 3, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Nov 1, 2025vs CGY4 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025at PHI1 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025vs TB2 − 5L
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 25, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025vs ANA2 − 5L
Oct 18, 2025at WPG1 − 4L