bayesRatings

Flyers at Canadiens

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final PHI 5 – MTL 4
← NHL / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
PHI301015
MTL040004
Team box
PHI·MTL
42
shots
20
2 of 6
power play
2 of 4
34.5
faceoff %
65.5
22
hits
26
10
blocked shots
15
15
penalty minutes
19
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Kirby DachMTL204
Bobby BrinkPHI203
Ivan DemidovMTL113
Cam YorkPHI112
Travis KonecnyPHI025
Trevor ZegrasPHI025
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dan VladarPHI2016.800
Sam MontembeaultMTL4238.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MTL 1 · PHI 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 39%, MTL 61% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
MTL by 0.6
Expected score
MTL 3.5 – 2.9 PHI
Expected total
6.4
FlyersThe matchupCanadiens
+159Our fair odds−159
2.9Expected goals3.5
−0.19Power rating+0.02
2.8Goals / game3.7
2.6Allowed / game3.0
23.5Shots / game25.9
50.3Faceoff %50.3
20.8Hits / game19.8
6−6Season record9−3
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MTL chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+15939%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−15961%————
SpreadMTL by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.6our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Montreal Canadiens by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 4%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 8%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 8%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 17%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 24%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 14%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 3%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: 1%
← PHI wins byMTL wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more37%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.14 GAAstarted
MTLSam Montembeault G · last 5 starts: .830 save %, 3.78 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MTL
Nov 2, 2025 vs CGY
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs OTT
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
PHI·MTL
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
2.8
goals / game
3.7
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.0
6−6
season record
9−3
6−3
home record
4−1
0−3
away record
5−2
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
23.5
shots / game
25.9
50.3
faceoff %
50.3
20.8
hits / game
19.8
15.2
blocked shots / game
16.7
3.7
takeaways / game
3.8
16.4
giveaways / game
12.8

Rating Trend

PHI · MTL · 22 days
Philadelphia FlyersMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 6−4
Apr 5, 2025at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Mar 27, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Oct 27, 2024at PHIMTL 4 − 3
Apr 9, 2024at MTLMTL 9 − 3
Mar 28, 2024at MTLMTL 4 − 1
Jan 10, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 2 SO
Mar 28, 2023at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Feb 24, 2023at PHIMTL 5 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at MTLMTL 5 − 4 SO
Apr 21, 2022at MTLPHI 6 − 3

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 2, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Nov 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Oct 25, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at OTT1 − 2L
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA5 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs FLA5 − 2W

MTL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 1, 2025vs OTT4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025at VAN4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at EDM5 − 6L
Oct 22, 2025at CGY2 − 1W
Oct 20, 2025vs BUF4 − 2W
Oct 18, 2025vs NYR3 − 4L
Oct 16, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Oct 14, 2025vs SEA5 − 4W
Oct 11, 2025at CHI3 − 2W