bayesRatings

Wild at Blackhawks

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 7:30 PM CT · United Center · Final MIN 4 – CHI 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
MIN01214
CHI02103
Team box
MIN·CHI
24
shots
37
1 of 5
power play
0 of 4
43.9
faceoff %
56.1
26
hits
11
5
blocked shots
11
18
penalty minutes
20
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Filip GustavssonMIN3734.919
Spencer KnightCHI2420.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CHI 2 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, CHI 50% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 3.0 – 2.8 CHI
Expected total
5.8
WildThe matchupBlackhawks
−101Our fair odds+101
3.0Expected goals2.8
+0.01Power rating−0.24
3.0Goals / game3.1
2.8Allowed / game2.8
27.9Shots / game24.9
47.9Faceoff %46.7
22.2Hits / game18.6
12−11Season record10−12
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHI chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild−10150%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+10150%————
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Wild−0.3our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 13%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 11%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 17%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 26%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byCHI wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more34%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more23%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 1.94 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .936 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHI
Nov 23, 2025 at WPG
last game
Nov 23, 2025 vs COL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
MIN·CHI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
3.0
goals / game
3.1
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.8
12−11
season record
10−12
7−6
home record
5−6
5−5
away record
5−6
W5
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
27.9
shots / game
24.9
47.9
faceoff %
46.7
22.2
hits / game
18.6
15.4
blocked shots / game
12.1
4.3
takeaways / game
5.4
14.6
giveaways / game
17.4

Rating Trend

MIN · CHI · 44 days
Minnesota WildChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 1−9
Jan 26, 2025at CHIMIN 4 − 2
Dec 23, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Nov 29, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Nov 10, 2024at CHICHI 2 − 1 OT
Apr 7, 2024at CHIMIN 4 − 0
Feb 7, 2024at CHIMIN 2 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at MINMIN 4 − 1
Apr 10, 2023at CHIMIN 4 − 2
Mar 25, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1
Dec 16, 2022at MINMIN 4 − 1

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Nov 23, 2025at WPG3 − 0W
Nov 21, 2025at PIT5 − 0W
Nov 19, 2025vs CAR4 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs VGK3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs ANA2 − 0W
Nov 11, 2025vs SJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025vs CGY2 − 0W
Nov 7, 2025at NYI5 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Nov 23, 2025vs COL0 − 1L
Nov 21, 2025at BUF3 − 9L
Nov 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025vs CGY5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at DET5 − 1W
Nov 7, 2025at CGY4 − 0W
Nov 5, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L