bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Wild

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 8:30 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final CAR 3 – MIN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CAR012003
MIN201014
Team box
CAR·MIN
45
shots
19
0 of 2
power play
0 of 1
54.0
faceoff %
46.0
12
hits
18
4
blocked shots
25
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jackson BlakeCAR204
Mats ZuccarelloMIN112
Danila YurovMIN022
Sebastian AhoCAR105
Matt BoldyMIN102
Brock FaberMIN102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Frederik AndersenCAR1916.842
Jesper WallstedtMIN4542.933

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CAR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MIN 2 · CAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 0.5
Expected score
CAR 3.1 – 2.6 MIN
Expected total
5.7
HurricanesThe matchupWild
−110Our fair odds+110
3.1Expected goals2.6
+0.28Power rating−0.06
3.7Goals / game2.8
2.8Allowed / game3.0
33.6Shots / game28.6
49.7Faceoff %48.3
19.5Hits / game22.2
13−6Season record9−11
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes−11052%————
MINMinnesota Wild+11048%————
SpreadCAR by 0.5
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 0.5 expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 3%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 8%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 14%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 12%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 26%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 8%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 8%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 3%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%
← CAR wins byMIN wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more37%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more25%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .869 save %, 3.49 GAAstarted
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 1.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·MIN
Nov 17, 2025 at BOS
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs VGK
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
CAR·MIN
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.7
goals / game
2.8
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.0
13−6
season record
9−11
6−3
home record
6−6
7−3
away record
3−5
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
33.6
shots / game
28.6
49.7
faceoff %
48.3
19.5
hits / game
22.2
12.2
blocked shots / game
14.8
5.5
takeaways / game
4.2
17.2
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

CAR · MIN · 37 days
Carolina HurricanesMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 6−3
Nov 6, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 3
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
Jan 4, 2025at CARMIN 4 − 0
Feb 27, 2024at MINCAR 3 − 2
Jan 21, 2024at CARMIN 5 − 2
Jan 19, 2023at CARCAR 5 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at MINMIN 2 − 1 OT
Apr 2, 2022at CARMIN 3 − 1
Feb 12, 2022at MINMIN 3 − 2

CAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 17, 2025at BOS3 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs EDM3 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs VAN4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Nov 4, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS1 − 2L
Oct 30, 2025vs NYI6 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 16, 2025vs VGK3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs ANA2 − 0W
Nov 11, 2025vs SJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025vs CGY2 − 0W
Nov 7, 2025at NYI5 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs VAN5 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs PIT1 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025vs WPG3 − 4L