bayesRatings

Mammoth at Blues

NHL · Saturday, Nov 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final UTAH 0 – STL 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH0000
STL0101
Team box
UTAH·STL
18
shots
19
0 of 2
power play
0 of 2
54.3
faceoff %
45.7
20
hits
26
13
blocked shots
23
4
penalty minutes
17
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Dylan HollowaySTL103
Robert ThomasSTL010
Philip BrobergSTL010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH1918.947
Joel HoferSTL18181.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 1 · UTAH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 46%, STL 54% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.1 – 3.0 UTAH
Expected total
6.1
MammothThe matchupBlues
+117Our fair odds−117
3.0Expected goals3.1
+0.01Power rating−0.06
3.1Goals / game2.7
3.0Allowed / game3.6
29.1Shots / game25.6
46.7Faceoff %50.4
17.8Hits / game22.8
12−13Season record8−17
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+11746%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−11754%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 18%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 25%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more29%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more19%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·STL
Nov 28, 2025 at DAL
last game
Nov 28, 2025 vs OTT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
UTAH·STL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.1
goals / game
2.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.6
12−13
season record
8−17
7−4
home record
4−9
5−9
away record
4−8
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
29.1
shots / game
25.6
46.7
faceoff %
50.4
17.8
hits / game
22.8
13.2
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.0
takeaways / game
4.4
17.5
giveaways / game
13.7

Rating Trend

UTAH · STL · 46 days
Utah MammothSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · STL 2−3
Oct 23, 2025at STLUTAH 7 − 4
Apr 15, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 1
Feb 2, 2025at UTAHSTL 2 − 1
Jan 18, 2025at UTAHUTAH 4 − 2
Nov 7, 2024at STLUTAH 4 − 2

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 28, 2025at DAL3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Nov 24, 2025vs VGK5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L
Nov 18, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Nov 17, 2025at ANA2 − 3L
Nov 14, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Nov 12, 2025vs BUF5 − 2W
Nov 9, 2025at OTT2 − 4L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 28, 2025vs OTT4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025at NJ2 − 3L
Nov 24, 2025at NYR2 − 3L
Nov 22, 2025at NYI2 − 1W
Nov 20, 2025at PHI2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI5 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025vs CGY3 − 2W
Nov 8, 2025vs SEA3 − 4L