bayesRatings

Blues at Flyers

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final STL 2 – PHI 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
STL20002
PHI01113
Team box
STL·PHI
29
shots
28
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
59.2
faceoff %
40.8
25
hits
24
16
blocked shots
14
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joel HoferSTL2825.893
Dan VladarPHI2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
STL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PHI 1 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 3.1 – 3.1 STL
Expected total
6.2
BluesThe matchupFlyers
+110Our fair odds−110
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.05Power rating−0.19
2.8Goals / game2.8
3.9Allowed / game2.8
25.8Shots / game24.7
50.4Faceoff %47.8
23.6Hits / game21.8
6−14Season record9−9
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+11048%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers−11052%————
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis BluesPKour margin————
PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 18%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 24%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 11%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 5%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%
← STL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more28%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 3 or more18%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.89 GAAstarted
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .869 save %, 3.35 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PHI
Nov 18, 2025 at TOR
last game
Nov 15, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
STL·PHI
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
2.8
goals / game
2.8
3.9
goals allowed / game
2.8
6−14
season record
9−9
3−9
home record
6−5
3−5
away record
3−4
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
25.8
shots / game
24.7
50.4
faceoff %
47.8
23.6
hits / game
21.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.6
takeaways / game
4.1
13.7
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

STL · PHI · 38 days
St. Louis BluesPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHI 6−3
Nov 14, 2025at STLPHI 6 − 5 SO
Nov 30, 2024at STLPHI 3 − 2 OT
Oct 31, 2024at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Mar 4, 2024at PHISTL 2 − 1 SO
Jan 15, 2024at STLPHI 4 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 2
Nov 8, 2022at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Mar 24, 2022at STLPHI 5 − 2
Feb 22, 2022at PHISTL 4 − 1

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 18, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI5 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025vs CGY3 − 2W
Nov 8, 2025vs SEA3 − 4L
Nov 6, 2025at BUF3 − 0W
Nov 5, 2025at WSH1 − 6L
Nov 3, 2025vs EDM3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025vs VAN3 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025at DAL1 − 5L
Nov 14, 2025at STL6 − 5W
Nov 12, 2025vs EDM1 − 2L
Nov 8, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 6, 2025at NSH3 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025at MTL5 − 4W
Nov 2, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Nov 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W