bayesRatings

Canucks at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 2 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final VAN 1 – COL 3
← NHL / Dec 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN1001
COL1203
Team box
VAN·COL
21
shots
31
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
46.8
faceoff %
53.2
17
hits
18
11
blocked shots
16
2
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL206
Gabriel LandeskogCOL020
Linus KarlssonVAN102
Brock NelsonCOL101
Ross ColtonCOL015
Devon ToewsCOL012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3128.903
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL10101.000
Scott WedgewoodCOL1110.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · VAN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 28%, COL 72% · Updated Dec 2, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.8
Expected score
COL 4.4 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
7.0
CanucksThe matchupAvalanche
+262Our fair odds−262
2.6Expected goals4.4
−0.14Power rating+0.65
3.0Goals / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game2.2
26.7Shots / game33.9
47.4Faceoff %49.7
21.0Hits / game17.9
10−16Season record18−7
2−8Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · COL chance
Our model fair27.6%72.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+26228%————
COLColorado Avalanche−26272%————
SpreadCOL by 1.8
VANVancouver Canucks+1.8our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.8 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 8 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 21%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 7%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more59%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more46%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more10%
Decided by one goal32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.38 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .952 save %, 1.38 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·COL
Nov 29, 2025 at LA
last game
Nov 29, 2025 vs MTL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
VAN·COL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.65
3.0
goals / game
4.1
3.7
goals allowed / game
2.2
10−16
season record
18−7
3−8
home record
10−2
7−8
away record
8−5
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
9−1
26.7
shots / game
33.9
47.4
faceoff %
49.7
21.0
hits / game
17.9
15.6
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.2
takeaways / game
4.6
14.7
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

VAN · COL · 49 days
Vancouver CanucksColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Nov 9, 2025at VANCOL 5 − 4 OT
Apr 10, 2025at COLVAN 4 − 1
Feb 4, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 0
Dec 16, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 1
Mar 13, 2024at VANCOL 4 − 3 OT
Feb 20, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
Nov 22, 2023at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2023at VANCOL 4 − 1
Jan 5, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 2
Nov 23, 2022at COLVAN 4 − 3

VAN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 29, 2025at LA1 − 2L
Nov 28, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Nov 23, 2025vs CGY2 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025vs DAL2 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at FLA5 − 8L
Nov 16, 2025at TB6 − 2W
Nov 14, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Nov 11, 2025vs WPG3 − 5L
Nov 9, 2025vs COL4 − 5L

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025vs MTL7 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025vs SJ6 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at CHI1 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025at NSH3 − 0W
Nov 20, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W